- The Cubs are -140 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Washington Nationals (+115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-140) on Monday, July 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Nationals vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 37-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 47-45 ATS.
Nationals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -105 | +115 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -115 | -140 |
Nationals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 63.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+17.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+15.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+13.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.10 Units / 33% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+18.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 36 of his last 50 games (+17.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 37 of his last 50 games (+14.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+13.20 Units / 69% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.95 Units / 34% ROI)
Cubs vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Cubs vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Cubs vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Cubs vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 4.5 +145 | 4.5 -190 |
| Mackenzie Gore | 5.5 -115 | 5.5 -110 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 away games (+15.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 46 away games (+15.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 away games (+4.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 27 games (+4.10 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.55 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+3.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 33 games at home (+2.00 Units / 5% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 51-42 against the Run Line (+3.35 Units / 2.94% ROI).
- 37-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.5 Units / 3.71% ROI
- 44-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.6 Units / -4.46% ROI
- 44-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.6 Units / -3.55% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 47-45 against the Run Line (-2.05 Units / -1.74% ROI).
- 43-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.85 Units / -7.19% ROI
- 47-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.1 Units / 0.1% ROI
- 42-47 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.35 Units / -9.32% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to June 15th — Freddy Peralta has the longest active streak at 7.
MacKenzie Gore has an average spin rate of 1974.6 RPM on sliders since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 2400.3 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (126/436) against MacKenzie Gore since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .190 (15 Total Bases / 79 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .398 — 99th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (141/345) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has located his fastball inside 56% of the time (352/632) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 37% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 48% of the time (744/1,551) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
39 of Drew Smyly’s 127 breaking pitch strikeouts (31%) have been backdoor since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 13% — 97th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are just 13-27 (.325) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .539.
The Nationals are just 1-148 (.007) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Nationals are just 90-138 (.395) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 35-48 (.422) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .612.
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 4-35 (.103) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Cubs are just 2-38 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .102.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 439 strikeouts in 2,332 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have drawn 145 walks in 2,332 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .296 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .445 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters have 600 strikeouts in 2,472 PA’s (24%) against LHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 7% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.2 MPH (2,287 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 8% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 13% of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
- Dansby Swanson (Cubs): Heel, D10
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Jeimer Candelario (Nationals): Thumb, Day-to-Day
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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