- The Cubs are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Nationals vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 38-56 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 47-46 ATS.
Nationals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -150 | O 9 +100 | +140 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | U 9 -120 | -165 |
Nationals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 74.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+15.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+14.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+13.75 Units / 62% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+10.25 Units / 112% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 47 games (+15.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 48 games (+15.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+14.20 Units / 70% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.95 Units / 33% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+12.80 Units / 65% ROI)
Cubs vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cubs vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
Cubs vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -155 |
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 46 away games (+16.65 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 47 away games (+16.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.80 Units / 47% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+9.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games (+5.10 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.55 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games (+2.10 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 34 games at home (+1.00 Units / 2% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 52-42 against the Run Line (+4.35 Units / 3.76% ROI).
- 38-56 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.65 Units / 4.87% ROI
- 45-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.6 Units / -3.45% ROI
- 44-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -4.63% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 47-46 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -2.57% ROI).
- 43-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.2 Units / -8.32% ROI
- 48-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.1 Units / 1.06% ROI
- 42-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.5 Units / -10.34% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .316 (119-for-376) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .395 (30-for-76) against Patrick Corbin on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .256 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .301 (135-for-448) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .243 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .359 (407 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — first Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jameson Taillon has walked 13 of 559 right-handed batters (2%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed an OPS of 1.003 (160 PA’s) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .747 — third Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed a slugging percentage of .621 (87 Total Bases / 140 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .424 — second Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has an ERA of 7.27 (17.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 4.25 — third Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are just 28-58 (.326) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .513.
The Nationals are just 1-149 (.007) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Nationals are just 36-49 (.424) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .597.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 14-65 (.177) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .611.
The Cubs are just 4-37 (.098) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Nationals hitters have just 441 strikeouts in 2,344 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 22% of swings this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging just .442 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.
The Cubs are batting just .295 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
26% of Cubs hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 19% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.2 MPH (2,319 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 8% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .219 against Cubs pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Cubs vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
- Dansby Swanson (Cubs): Heel, D10
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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