- The Cubs are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Wednesday, July 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Nationals vs Cubs Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 38-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 48-46 ATS.
Nationals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -140 | O 9.5 -120 | +140 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +115 | U 9.5 +100 | -165 |
Nationals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 67.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+15.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+15.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 36 games (+13.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.45 Units / 53% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+9.70 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+15.20 Units / 71% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 34 of his last 49 games (+14.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+14.20 Units / 49% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 31 of his last 48 games (+13.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+13.80 Units / 72% ROI)
Cubs vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
Cubs vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
Cubs vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hendricks | 3.5 -110 | 3.5 -120 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 47 away games (+15.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 48 away games (+14.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 away games (+6.80 Units / 51% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 59 games (+10.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 games (+3.10 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 35 games at home (+2.35 Units / 6% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 52-43 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 2.39% ROI).
- 38-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 3.79% ROI
- 46-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.6 Units / -2.47% ROI
- 44-46 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.8 Units / -5.59% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 48-46 against the Run Line (-1.7 Units / -1.42% ROI).
- 44-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.2 Units / -7.31% ROI
- 49-42 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.1 Units / 2.01% ROI
- 42-49 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.55 Units / -11.26% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has struck out just 12% (26/217) of left-handed batters he faced this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .478 (85 Total Bases / 178 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of just 15% (21 SO in 139 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 19% (57/295) against Trevor Williams this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — fourth Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has allowed a slugging percentage of .792 (38 Total Bases / 48 ABs) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd highest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .415 — fourth Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.0 MPH on fastballs since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 101 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has an average fastball velocity of just 87.0 MPH since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 102 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has located his pitches away 72% of the time (351/490) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 37 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Nationals are just 28-58 (.326) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Nationals are just 31-61 (.337) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .597.
The Nationals are just 13-27 (.325) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .540.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Cubs are just 4-37 (.098) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .216.
The Cubs are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 5-17 (.227) after a win as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .441.
The Cubs are just 5-24 (.172) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 625 strikeouts in 3,142 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 678 strikeouts in 3,573 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .296 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .443 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .592.
Cubs hitters have 27 extra-base hits out of 101 total hits (just 27%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .862 (192 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .689.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Nationals have won just 17% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 13% of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 40% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 8% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.2 MPH (2,346 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Cubs vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Hamstring, D10
- Christopher Morel (Cubs): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Dansby Swanson (Cubs): Heel, D10
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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