Nationals vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 20

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Chicago Cubs' Ian Happ watches his grand slam off Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller during the fifth inning of a baseball game Wednesday, Sept. 20, 2023, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 20, 2024, 11:02 AM
  • The Cubs are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals vs Cubs Over / Under today: 9 Runs
  • Nationals / Cubs TV Channel: MAS2 | MARQ | MLBN

The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Friday, September 20, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago, IL.

This season, the Nationals are 68-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 74-79 ATS.

Nationals vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams 5-0, 2.27 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon 10-8, 3.57 ERA

Nationals vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -150O 9 +100+140
Cubs -1.5 +125U 9 -120-165

Nationals vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+12.55 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the Walks Under in 27 of his last 37 games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.00 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+11.50 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Luis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.25 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Christian Bethancour has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 15 games (+22.00 Units / 147% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+17.65 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 37 games (+16.20 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 36 games (+14.60 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 45 games (+14.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 36 games (+39.60 Units / 110% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 36 games (+36.00 Units / 75% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 82 of their last 145 games (+9.85 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 53 away games (+9.60 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 43 away games (+6.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games at home (+15.05 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 48 games (+12.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 66 games (+10.32 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games (+9.31 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+6.55 Units / 24% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 85-68 against the Run Line (+5.93 Units / 2.95% ROI).

  • 68-85 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 0.31% ROI
  • 72-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.45 Units / -4.46% ROI
  • 73-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.07 Units / -4.17% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 74-79 against the Run Line (-18.2 Units / -8.87% ROI).

  • 78-75 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.43 Units / -0.23% ROI
  • 73-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.7 Units / -5.75% ROI
  • 75-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.97 Units / -2.96% ROI

Cubs vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Gallo (WAS) 0.5 +333 0.5 -450
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 0.5 +333 0.5 -450
Ian Happ (CHC) 0.5 +340 0.5 -450
CJ Abrams (WAS) 0.5 +400 0.5 -550
Michael Busch (CHC) 0.5 +450 0.5 -650

Cubs vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jose Tena (WAS) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Nico Hoerner (CHC) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Ian Happ (CHC) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Luis Garcia (WAS) 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 0.5 -250 0.5 +195

Cubs vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Seiya Suzuki (CHC) 0.5 +125 0.5 -160
Cody Bellinger (CHC) 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Andrés Chaparro (WAS) 0.5 +140 0.5 -185
Keibert Ruiz (WAS) 0.5 +145 0.5 -190
Isaac Paredes (CHC) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200

Cubs vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Trevor Williams (WSH) 3.5 -120 3.5 -110
Jameson Taillon (CHC) 4.5 -120 4.5 -110

Hitters have swung at 35% of Trevor Williams’ breaking pitches (343/979) since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.

Trevor Williams has thrown his breaking pitches for a strike just 51% (658/1,281) of the time since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 0 Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 36% of Trevor Williams’ breaking pitches (466/1,281) since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 47% — 0 Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 39% of Trevor Williams’ non-fastballs (657/1,706) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.

Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jameson Taillon has walked 27 of 1,040 right-handed batters (3%) since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 190 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .133 (6-for-45) against Jameson Taillon on low fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .270 — 99th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 8 of 303 right-handed batters (3%) this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 97th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has a strikeout rate of just 4% (1 SO in 23 PAs) in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.

The Nationals are just 59-233 (.202) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.

The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .589.

The Nationals are just 73-120 (.378) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Cubs are just 55-49 (.529) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.

The Cubs are 23-13 (.639) after a home loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Cubs are 30-10 (.750) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .642.

The Cubs are 15-27 (.357) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .249.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .947 (2,169 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.088.

Nationals hitters have just 1,071 strikeouts in 5,480 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .308 (2,367 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.

The Cubs are batting .260 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Cubs are batting .286 in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .239.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .678 (2,694 PA’s) at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.

The Cubs are batting .265 against LHP since last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .250.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 122 of 1,357 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 3.21 (678.0 IP) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.97.

Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 74 double plays in 1,063 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Cubs pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 37% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Cubs vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Chicago Cubs – No Injuries Reported
  • Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.