Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 24

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 24, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Diamondbacks (42-52) are -125 favorites vs the Nationals (31-65)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (5-7), 4.90 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Corbin Martin (0-0), 4.39 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The Washington Nationals (+105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-125) on Sunday, July 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Diamondbacks are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 31-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 54-40 ATS.

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -185O 9.5 -110+105
Diamondbacks -1.5 +150U 9.5 -110-125

Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Sunday‘s matchup with 69.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 30 away games (+19.70 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 26 games (+15.90 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 23 of his last 28 games (+12.10 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 16 games (+10.80 Units / 53% ROI)

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 34 of his last 55 games (+28.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 39 of his last 55 games (+14.60 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 41 of his last 58 games (+14.60 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Daulton Varsho has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 21 games (+11.15 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+9.75 Units / 17% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Christian Walker 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
David Peralta 0.5 +340 0.5 -650
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000

Diamondbacks vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 1.5 +155 1.5 -225
Christian Walker 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Daulton Varsho 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
David Peralta 1.5 +200 1.5 -300
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 -155 0.5 +110

Diamondbacks vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alek Thomas 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Christian Walker 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Daulton Varsho 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
David Peralta 0.5 +110 0.5 -155
Geraldo Perdomo 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Diamondbacks vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Erick Fedde 3.5 -135 3.5 -105
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 50 of their last 83 games (+16.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 75 games (+6.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 49 of their last 83 games (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 16 games (+10.25 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+6.75 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 28% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 40-56 against the Run Line (-24.55 Units / -20.66% ROI).

  • 31-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.6 Units / -23.53% ROI
  • 48-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 0.56% ROI
  • 43-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.25 Units / -8.82% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 54-40 against the Run Line (+10.35 Units / 8.42% ROI).

  • 42-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.65 Units / -4.48% ROI
  • 42-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -10.06% ROI
  • 48-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.95 Units / 0.91% ROI

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 31% (89/288) against Erick Fedde with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 66% (23/35) against Erick Fedde — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 0 Percentile.

Erick Fedde has an ERA of 8.17 (25.1 IP) against division opponents this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 3.89 — 0 Percentile.

Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (327/618) when ahead in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 46 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.

Corbin Martin: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Nationals are just 31-57 (.352) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Nationals are just 15-36 (.294) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Nationals are just 9-60 (.130) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 3-59 (.048) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Diamondbacks are just 97-17 (.851) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Diamondbacks are just 89-25 (.781) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.

The Diamondbacks are just 9-28 (.243) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Diamondbacks are just 13-42 (.236) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 253 double plays in 1,892 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 42 double plays in 308 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Nationals are batting just .121 on the road over the last 14 days (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Nationals hitters are slugging just .192 on the road over the last 14 days (3 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .200 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .236.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .213 with two outs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .181 in righty-righty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.85 (380.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

The Nationals have allowed 5.80 runs per game (261/45) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.35.

The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 72% of their games at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 1 of 96 batters (1%) over the past seven days (3 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Clippard (Nationals): Groin, D15
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.