Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 6

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 06, 2023, 3:32 PM
  • The Diamondbacks are -130 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
  • Watch the game on BSAZ

The Washington Nationals (+110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) on Saturday, May 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix.

The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Nationals are 13-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 19-13 ATS.

Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -175O 9.5 -115+110
Diamondbacks -1.5 +145U 9.5 -105-130

Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.45 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.05 Units / 117% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+15.65 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+14.35 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+9.55 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+8.55 Units / 47% ROI)

Diamondbacks vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Evan Longoria 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Michael Chavis 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Christian Walker 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Joey Meneses 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Alex Call 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Diamondbacks vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Evan Longoria 0.5 -185 0.5 +135
Michael Chavis 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Christian Walker 0.5 -210 0.5 +155
Joey Meneses 1.5 +200 1.5 -275
Alex Call 0.5 -210 0.5 +160

Diamondbacks vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Evan Longoria 0.5 +170 0.5 -225
Michael Chavis 0.5 +200 0.5 -275
Christian Walker 0.5 +160 0.5 -225
Joey Meneses 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Alex Call 0.5 +225 0.5 -300

Diamondbacks vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mackenzie Gore 5.5 +120 5.5 -155
Tommy Henry 3.5 -165 3.5 +125
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+7.95 Units / 57% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.25 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 away games (+5.25 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.20 Units / 62% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 19-13 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 12.66% ROI).

  • 13-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 9.53% ROI
  • 12-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -18.39% ROI
  • 17-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 10.8% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 19-13 against the Run Line (+5.3 Units / 12.73% ROI).

  • 18-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.95 Units / 18.56% ROI
  • 16-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 1.69% ROI
  • 14-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -9.7% ROI

MacKenzie Gore has walked 14 of 85 batters (17%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has walked 7 of 37 batters (19%) versus the bottom of the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (10/18) against MacKenzie Gore on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has walked 55 of 441 batters (12%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tommy Henry has limited playing time.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Nationals are just 117-13 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.

The Nationals are just 23-110 (.173) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.

The Nationals are just 0-116 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.

The Nationals are just 11-67 (.141) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Diamondbacks are just 104-33 (.759) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.

The Diamondbacks are just 116-23 (.835) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.

The Diamondbacks are just 72-12 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .911.

The Diamondbacks are just 66-17 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

Nationals hitters have 41 extra-base hits out of 177 total hits (just 23%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 18% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Diamondbacks are batting .212 with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .170.

Diamondbacks hitters have just 154 strikeouts in 791 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Diamondbacks are batting just .301 in hitter’s counts since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 118 of 1,192 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
  • Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
  • Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
  • Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.