- The Diamondbacks are -130 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Thomas Henry
- Watch the game on BSAZ
The Washington Nationals (+110) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) on Saturday, May 6, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 13-19 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 19-13 ATS.
Nationals vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | O 9.5 -115 | +110 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +145 | U 9.5 -105 | -130 |
Nationals vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 13 away games (+7.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.05 Units / 117% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+15.65 Units / 51% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+14.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+9.55 Units / 25% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 18 games (+8.55 Units / 47% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Evan Longoria | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Diamondbacks vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Gore | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Tommy Henry | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +125 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 26 games (+8.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+7.95 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+7.25 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 away games (+5.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 away games (+4.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+8.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 31 games (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.20 Units / 62% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 19-13 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 12.66% ROI).
- 13-19 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 9.53% ROI
- 12-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -18.39% ROI
- 17-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 10.8% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 19-13 against the Run Line (+5.3 Units / 12.73% ROI).
- 18-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.95 Units / 18.56% ROI
- 16-14 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.6 Units / 1.69% ROI
- 14-16 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -9.7% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has walked 14 of 85 batters (17%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 7 of 37 batters (19%) versus the bottom of the order this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (10/18) against MacKenzie Gore on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 12 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 55 of 441 batters (12%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 77 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tommy Henry has limited playing time.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Nationals are just 117-13 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals are just 23-110 (.173) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Nationals are just 0-116 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
The Nationals are just 11-67 (.141) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Diamondbacks are just 104-33 (.759) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .870.
The Diamondbacks are just 116-23 (.835) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .909.
The Diamondbacks are just 72-12 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .911.
The Diamondbacks are just 66-17 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have 41 extra-base hits out of 177 total hits (just 23%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 18% at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .212 with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 154 strikeouts in 791 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Diamondbacks are batting just .301 in hitter’s counts since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Diamondbacks hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 118 of 1,192 batters (10%) this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Oblique, D15
- Kyle Lewis (Diamondbacks): Illness, D10
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Cole Sulser (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Carson Kelly (Diamondbacks): Forearm, D10
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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