- The Mariners are -250 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+200) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-250) on Monday, June 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Nationals vs Mariners Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 30-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 35-41 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +105 | O 8 -120 | +200 |
| Mariners | -1.5 -125 | U 8 +100 | -250 |
Nationals vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 87.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+19.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+16.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in his last 16 games (+16.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 games (+13.20 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jarred Kelenic has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 29 games (+10.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games at home (+10.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+9.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+9.00 Units / 49% ROI)
Mariners vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Mariners vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Mariners vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Mariners vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Castillo | 6.5 +110 | 6.5 -150 |
| Trevor Williams | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 37 away games (+14.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 28 games (+11.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 36 away games (+9.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 36 away games (+6.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 32 away games (+3.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+4.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+3.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 12 of their last 20 games at home (+2.85 Units / 11% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 43-34 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 4.79% ROI).
- 30-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.25 Units / -0.32% ROI
- 35-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.9 Units / -8.09% ROI
- 38-35 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.18% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 35-41 against the Run Line (-9.25 Units / -9.39% ROI).
- 37-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.25 Units / -10.36% ROI
- 37-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.05 Units / -4.78% ROI
- 37-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.4 Units / -4.11% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (588/1,139) of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .464 (64 Total Bases / 138 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: .306 — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 16% (6/37) against Trevor Williams on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 40% of Trevor Williams’ non-fastballs (459/1,139) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 95 total IP; League Avg: 48% — second Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting just .161 (26-for-161) against Luis Castillo this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 43% (55/128) against Luis Castillo on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .119 (10-for-84) against Luis Castillo’s elevated fastball this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .220 — 97th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 43% (41 SO in 95 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Nationals are just 28-132 (.175) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Nationals are just 56-97 (.366) after a loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .483.
The Nationals are just 1-141 (.007) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mariners are 8-99 (.075) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Mariners are just 1-3 (.250) after a win as underdogs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
The Mariners are just 1-16 (.059) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Mariners are just 6-10 (.375) after a road win this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals are just 2-8 (.200) against the run line (-49.1% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Nationals hitters have just 532 strikeouts in 2,886 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .207 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
The Mariners are batting just .220 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .174 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have a strike rate of 67% this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Mariners have won just just 5% of the time this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 198 of 2,811 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Trevor Gott (Mariners): Back, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Andrés Muñoz (Mariners): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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