- The Mariners are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert
- Watch the game on ROOT Sports NW
The Washington Nationals (+220) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-275) on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Mariners Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 31-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 36-42 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -130 | O 8.5 -110 | +220 |
| Mariners | -2.5 +105 | U 8.5 -110 | -275 |
Nationals vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 86.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+21.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+18.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in his last 18 games (+18.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 39 games (+15.20 Units / 19% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ty France has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+10.80 Units / 35% ROI)
- J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 games at home (+9.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 46 games (+9.25 Units / 18% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 49 games (+8.90 Units / 10% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+8.85 Units / 31% ROI)
Mariners vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Mariners vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Mariners vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Teoscar Hernandez | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -130 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| AJ Pollock | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Mariners vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
| Logan Gilbert | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 39 away games (+14.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 38 away games (+10.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 38 away games (+8.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.85 Units / 51% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+10.65 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+4.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+4.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 26 games (+3.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 23% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 44-35 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 4.69% ROI).
- 31-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 0.94% ROI
- 37-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -5.6% ROI
- 38-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -2.32% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mariners have gone 36-42 against the Run Line (-9.4 Units / -9.32% ROI).
- 38-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.65 Units / -11.14% ROI
- 39-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.05 Units / -2.36% ROI
- 37-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -6.53% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .321 (100-for-312) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 14% (57 SO in 406 PAs) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .309 (115-for-372) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .406 (28-for-69) against Patrick Corbin on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — second Percentile.
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .144 (188 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .250 against Logan Gilbert on the first pitch of at-bats this season — fourth best among qualified SPs– 95th Percentile. Opponents batted .476 (39-for-82) against him on the first pitch of at-bats last season — worst among qualified SPs– second Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .291 (188 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .496 — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .259 (344 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .303 — 97th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Nationals are just 13-26 (.333) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.
The Nationals are just 11-19 (.367) after a win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Nationals are just 26-54 (.325) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mariners are just 2-25 (.074) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
The Mariners are 25-3 (.893) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Mariners are 57-9 (.864) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Mariners are 17-8 (.680) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .563.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals are just 2-8 (.200) against the run line (-49.1% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Nationals hitters have drawn 119 walks in 1,939 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.73 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .112 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Mariners are batting just .121 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of just .272 (338 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .168 on pitches out of the zone since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 652 of 8,880 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 201 of 2,850 batters (7%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.27 (358.0 IP) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Mariners vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Easton McGee (Mariners): Forearm, D60
- Marco Gonzales (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Robert Ray (Mariners): Flexor, D60
- William Murfee (Mariners): Elbow, D15
- Evan White (Mariners): Adductor, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Paul Abrams (Nationals): Elbow, Day-to-Day
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