- The Marlins are -155 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: MATV | NATV
The Washington Nationals (+125) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-155) on August 21, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 pm in Miami, FL.
This season, the Nationals are 61-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 65-61 ATS.
Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Brad Lord 5-2, 4.02 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Ryan Gusto 0-3, 4.67 ERA
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -170 | O 7.5 -102 | +125 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +140 | U 7.5 -118 | -155 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Friday‘s MLB game with 56.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- Daylen Lile has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 25 away games (+11.05 Units / 37% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- Abimelec Ortiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+10.60 Units / 151% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.60 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Javier Sanoja has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+16.00 Units / 400% ROI)
- Heriberto Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 20 games at home (+14.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+14.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Javier Sanoja has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.55 Units / 39% ROI)
- Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.80 Units / 48% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 50 away games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 50 away games (+6.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 28% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 40 games at home (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+9.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+8.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+8.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games at home (+6.20 Units / 17% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 74-53 against the Run Line (+9.8 Units / 5.58% ROI).
- 61-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 2.66% ROI
- 67-56 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.1 Units / 4.3% ROI
- 56-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.45 Units / -12.28% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 65-61 against the Run Line (-5.1 Units / -2.99% ROI).
- 64-64 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 0.4% ROI
- 63-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.45 Units / -3.86% ROI
- 62-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.1 Units / -5.06% ROI
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Yes | |
|---|---|
| Griffin Conine | +400 |
| Abimelec Ortiz | +400 |
| Heriberto Hernandez | +475 |
| Daylen Lile | +550 |
| Joe Mack | +650 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Xavier Edwards | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Abimelec Ortiz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jose Tena | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Heriberto Hernandez | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Tena | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Esteury Ruiz | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Abimelec Ortiz | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Joe Mack | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 1-52 (.019) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
The Nationals are just 31-25 (.554) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
The Nationals are just 13-49 (.210) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
The Nationals are just 1-58 (.017) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are 38-26 (.594) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB.
The Marlins are 27-8 (.771) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB.
The Marlins are just 12-28 (.300) vs the top 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face Nationals (28th fewest runs allowed).
The Marlins are 38-25 (.603) at home this season — 4th best in MLB.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are 29-14 (.674) against the run line (21.7% ROI) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Marlins (19th in runs scored).
Games involving the Nationals went OVER in 60% of their games (18.9% ROI) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season Today, they face the Marlins (19th in runs scored).
The Nationals are just 1-52 (.019) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.
The Nationals are just 31-25 (.554) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Marlins are 38-26 (.594) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB.
Games involving the Marlins went UNDER in 58% of their games (10.6% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) this season — 4th highest in MLB.
The Marlins are 27-8 (.771) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB.
The Marlins are 38-25 (11.2% ROI) at home this season — 4th best in MLB.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of 34% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of 49% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers had an ERA of 5.34 (1425.0 IP) in the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.
The Nationals allowed 5.84 runs per game (473/81) at home in the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers had an ERA of 5.37 (751.0 IP) at home in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Marlins allowed 6.04 runs per game (489/81) at home in the 2024 season — highest in MLB.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 35% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
More MLB Reading:
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