- The Marlins are -210 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jacob Irvin
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Pérez
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Washington Nationals (+170) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-210) on Saturday, August 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 60-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 58-71 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 8 -115 | +170 |
| Marlins | -1.5 -105 | U 8 -105 | -210 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 78.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 25 away games (+11.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 33 games (+10.50 Units / 32% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 21 away games (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+13.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+11.30 Units / 93% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+11.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jacob Stallings has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 58% ROI)
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -110 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eury Perez | 6.5 -110 | 6.5 -120 |
| Jake Irvin | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +110 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 41 of their last 64 away games (+14.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games (+11.50 Units / 83% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.38 Units / 96% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.75 Units / 42% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 23 of their last 34 games (+9.83 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 51 games at home (+5.59 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 43 games at home (+4.42 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 48 games at home (+4.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 44 games at home (+3.95 Units / 6% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 72-57 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 4.81% ROI).
- 60-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +23.8 Units / 18.06% ROI
- 60-62 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.55 Units / -6.02% ROI
- 62-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.25 Units / -2.32% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 58-71 against the Run Line (-27.7 Units / -16.09% ROI).
- 65-64 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.2 Units / -3.29% ROI
- 57-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.4 Units / -11.04% ROI
- 66-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.15 Units / 2.25% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 16% (49/315) against Jake Irvin this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (27/163) against Jake Irvin this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a miss rate of just 14% (22/155) against Jake Irvin when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 42% (328/788) against Jake Irvin this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eury Perez has allowed a slugging percentage of .889 (32 Total Bases / 36 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .438 — 0 Percentile.
The last hit on a Eury Perez curveball was May 23rd. Hitters are 0 for their last 22 in ABs ending on his curveball. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a miss rate of 35% (193/555) against Eury Perez this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Julio Urias allowed an OBP of just .251 (689 PA’s) in 2022 — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 95th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 43-70 (.381) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 35-58 (.376) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 34-152 (.183) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
The Nationals are just 35-52 (.402) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are 7-55 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Marlins are just 16-70 (.186) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .301.
The Marlins are 13-133 (.089) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Marlins are 37-5 (.881) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .898 (926 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.106.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Nationals are just 2-12 (.143) against the run line (-63.6% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 79 extra-base hits out of 292 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 69 walks in 1,108 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have drawn 161 walks in 2,424 PA’s (7%) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 23% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Illness, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Garcia (Nationals): Biceps, D15
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