- The Marlins are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jon Chargois
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Washington Nationals (+155) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-190) on Sunday, August 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 61-69 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 58-72 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | O 8.5 +100 | +155 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -120 | -190 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 75.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 34 games (+12.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+10.30 Units / 58% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+9.95 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+14.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+12.30 Units / 94% ROI)
- Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jacob Stallings has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 58% ROI)
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 1.5 +120 | 1.5 -160 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luis Arraez | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Josh Bell | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -200 |
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jazz Chisholm | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 65 away games (+15.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games (+13.30 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 7 away games (+7.38 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 35 games (+10.83 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games at home (+4.54 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 44 games at home (+2.37 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 45 games at home (+1.75 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 73-57 against the Run Line (+8.55 Units / 5.41% ROI).
- 61-69 when betting on the Moneyline for +25.6 Units / 19.28% ROI
- 60-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.55 Units / -6.68% ROI
- 63-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.25 Units / -1.6% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 58-72 against the Run Line (-28.7 Units / -16.57% ROI).
- 65-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.4 Units / -4.62% ROI
- 57-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.4 Units / -11.67% ROI
- 67-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 2.94% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (500/980) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has a strike rate of just 51% (354/692) on sliders since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft had an ERA of 8.37 (47.1 IP) against division opponents in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 3.93 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .504 (113 Total Bases / 224 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .312 — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
JT Chargois has not allowed a walk in any of his last three starts — Caleb Ferguson has the longest active streak at 5.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 35-58 (.376) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 36-52 (.409) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 35-152 (.187) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are 7-55 (.113) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Marlins are just 17-13 (.567) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .691.
The Marlins are just 25-44 (.362) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Marlins are just 103-16 (.866) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 692 strikeouts in 3,541 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals are just 2-12 (.143) against the run line (-63.6% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Nationals hitters have just 925 strikeouts in 4,886 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 295 strikeouts in 1,594 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 41% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Marlins hitters have 79 extra-base hits out of 293 total hits (just 27%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Marlins pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Matthew Barnes (Marlins): Hip, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D60
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Illness, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Marlins): Knee, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Huascar Brazoban (Marlins): Hamstring, D15
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Garcia (Nationals): Biceps, D15
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