- The Marlins (22-30) are -190 favorites vs the Nationals (21-35)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Joan Adon (1-9), 5.98 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera (1-0), 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Washington Nationals (+155) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-190) on Tuesday, June 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 21-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 27-25 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | O 8.5 -105 | +155 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -115 | -190 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 54.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Maikel Franco has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.50 Units / 77% ROI)
- Maikel Franco has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- Maikel Franco has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 16 away games (+9.65 Units / 45% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+5.60 Units / 93% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+5.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.25 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jon Berti has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games (+14.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 29 away games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 15 games (+3.40 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 22 away games (+2.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 36 games (+1.35 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+8.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Strikeouts Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.35 Units / 88% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+4.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.45 Units / 15% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 22-34 against the Run Line (-16.8 Units / -24.45% ROI).
- 21-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.95 Units / -11.9% ROI
- 28-25 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.45 Units / 0.72% ROI
- 25-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.3 Units / -8.65% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 27-25 against the Run Line (-0.1 Units / -0.14% ROI).
- 22-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.6 Units / -20.19% ROI
- 26-25 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.15 Units / -1.98% ROI
- 25-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.1 Units / -5.44% ROI
Joan Adon: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joan Adon has allowed an OBP of .369 (122 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — first Percentile.
Joan Adon has walked 33 of 248 batters (13%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Joan Adon has walked 19 of 116 left-handed batters (16%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — third Percentile.
Joan Adon has allowed an OBP of .385 (247 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 10% (1/10) against Edward Cabrera — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 8.0 innings pitched — Luis Garcia has the longest active streak at 23.1.
Edward Cabrera allowed an OBP of .438 (16 PA’s) against right-handed batters — 5th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .290 — eighth Percentile.
Opponents batted just .053 (1-for-19) against Edward Cabrera — 3rd best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .223 — 97th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 9-18 (.333) at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .710.
The Nationals are just 21-33 (.389) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are 17-2 (.895) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 10-16 (.385) on the road this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
The Marlins are just 12-14 (.462) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .512.
The Marlins are just 21-25 (.457) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Marlins are just 2-19 (.095) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting .279 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Nationals hitters have just 104 strikeouts in 622 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .349 (2,469 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .347 (1,147 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 607 strikeouts in 2,179 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .278 (483 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have 141 strikeouts in 483 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .322 against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .387.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .338 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .299 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 3.40 (975.0 IP) at home since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D10
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Shoulder/Neck, D10
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Nationals): Quad, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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