- The Marlins (24-30) are -145 favorites vs the Nationals (21-37)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Stephen Strasburg (-), – ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Trevor Rogers (2-5), 5.8 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-145) on Thursday, June 9, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 21-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 28-26 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -110 | +120 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -110 | -145 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s matchup with 67.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+11.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+10.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 31 away games (+6.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 71% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+6.65 Units / 109% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+5.40 Units / 37% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Garrett Cooper has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 30 of their last 45 games (+14.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+7.95 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.75 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 15 away games (+1.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.85 Units / 37% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+8.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games at home (+4.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.50 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 23-35 against the Run Line (-17.05 Units / -23.95% ROI).
- 21-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.95 Units / -14.82% ROI
- 29-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.3 Units / 0.46% ROI
- 26-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.4 Units / -8.52% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 28-26 against the Run Line (-0.05 Units / -0.07% ROI).
- 24-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.6 Units / -16.04% ROI
- 27-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.3 Units / -2.16% ROI
- 26-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.2 Units / -5.41% ROI
Stephen Strasburg: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Trevor Rogers: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Rogers has thrown his changeup 28% of the time (56/203) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total CH; League Avg: 10% — 98th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has allowed a slugging percentage of .792 (61 Total Bases / 77 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: .534 — third Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown low pitches 59% of the time (120/203) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 26 total IP; League Avg: 41% — 99th Percentile.
Trevor Rogers has thrown low pitches 57% of the time (430/752) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 21-34 (.382) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 4-35 (.103) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 9-18 (.333) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Nationals are just 4-15 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 19-3 (.864) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .906.
The Marlins are just 5-16 (.238) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .332.
The Marlins are 22-1 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .927.
The Marlins are just 1-23 (.042) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .094.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .335 (4,389 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Nationals have grounded 211 double plays since the start of last season — most in MLB.
The Nationals are batting .275 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Nationals hitters have just 1,230 strikeouts in 5,806 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 609 strikeouts in 2,185 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have 143 strikeouts in 489 PA’s (29%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .289 (2,185 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .596 (489 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .704.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .298 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .212.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .338 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have picked-off 8 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Marlins pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Marlins pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Jesús Luzardo (Marlins): Forearm, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Back, D10
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D10
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Shoulder/Neck, D10
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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