- The Marlins are -150 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin, 5.62 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Perez, 5.87 ERA
The Washington Nationals (+125) visit Roger Dean Stadium to take on the Miami Marlins (-150) on Wednesday, March 15, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Jupiter.
The Marlins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Nationals are 6-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 3-11 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -145 | O 9 -110 | +125 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +120 | U 9 -110 | -150 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 63.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Israel Pineda has hit the Singles Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Avisail Garcia has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Peyton Burdick has hit the Singles Over in his last 3 games at home (+5.45 Units / 182% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+4.50 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Jordan Groshans has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+2.75 Units / 23% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 away games (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 27 away games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 25 away games (+2.50 Units / 9% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 62 of their last 95 games (+23.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+14.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 16 games (+13.90 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+11.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.70 Units / 33% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 8-6 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 2.45% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 8.93% ROI
- 4-10 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.05 Units / -45.78% ROI
- 10-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.55 Units / 36.04% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 3-11 against the Run Line (-10.25 Units / -58.07% ROI).
- 3-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.55 Units / -50.89% ROI
- 4-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.65 Units / -30.49% ROI
- 8-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.5 Units / 22.44% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .363 (110-for-303) against Patrick Corbin on the road last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .248 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has located his pitches away 64% of the time (916/1,427) vs left-handed batters since the start of 2020 — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Patrick Corbin allowed an OPS of .943 (243 PA’s) on non-fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .638 — 0 Percentile.
Hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order batted .335 (145-for-433) against Patrick Corbin last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 11-193 (.054) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.
The Nationals are just 9-92 (.089) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 30-88 (.254) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Marlins are just 9-38 (.191) when allowing 2 or more home runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Marlins are just 9-53 (.145) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Marlins are just 8-14 (.364) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.81 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 599 extra-base hits out of 1,870 total hits (just 32%) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have 830 strikeouts in 3,012 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .346 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Marlins hitters had an OBP of just .273 (1,316 PA’s) against LHP last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have 978 strikeouts in 3,630 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of 24% with runners in scoring position last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Miami Marlins – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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