• The Marlins are -135 favorites vs the Nationals
• Nationals vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
• Nationals / Marlins TV Channel: PEAC

The Washington Nationals (+115) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-135) on May 10, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 12:15 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Nationals are 19-21 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 17-23 ATS.

Nationals vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Nationals starting pitcher: Cade Cavalli 1-2, 4.20 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara 3-2, 4.04 ERA

Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Nationals vs Marlins and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

• Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+14.80 Units / 65% ROI)
• Daylen Lile has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.80 Units / 39% ROI)
• Brady House has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 away games (+9.60 Units / 137% ROI)
• Luis Garcia has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.53 Units / 23% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.65 Units / 45% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Xavier Edwards has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+31.00 Units / 443% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+15.60 Units / 40% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+13.80 Units / 42% ROI)
• Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+10.10 Units / 67% ROI)
• Liam Hicks has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 35 of their last 50 games (+18.60 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 away games (+17.40 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 25 away games (+14.15 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 22 of their last 45 away games (+11.05 Units / 24% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.70 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+7.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 40 games (+5.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (+2.65 Units / 4% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 19 games (+2.35 Units / 10% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 24-15 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 10.4% ROI).

• 19-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 13.05% ROI
• 25-13 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.9 Units / 24.77% ROI
• 13-25 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.45 Units / -32.8% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 17-23 against the Run Line (-7.6 Units / -15.14% ROI).

• 18-22 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.05 Units / -6.14% ROI
• 23-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.25 Units / 14.06% ROI
• 15-23 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.1 Units / -23.19% ROI

Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Nationals are just 0-19 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.

The Nationals are 15-3 (.833) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.

The Nationals are 13-8 (.619) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .465.

The Nationals are just 13-5 (.722) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .862.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Marlins are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.

The Marlins are just 13-3 (.812) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .895.

The Marlins are just 1-5 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.

The Marlins are just 7-10 (.412) after a win this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .525.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Nationals are batting just .176 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .352 (468 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of .767 (468 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB.

The Nationals are batting .267 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

Marlins hitters have put 42% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB.

Marlins hitters have 10 extra-base hits out of 49 total hits (just 20%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .390 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Marlins are batting just .277 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .208 against Marlins pitchers with runners on base this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.16 (125.2 IP) on the road this season — 5th highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have 72 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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