- The Nationals are -105 favorites vs the Marlins
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Marlins starting pitcher: Edward Cabrera
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Washington Nationals (-105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-115) on Wednesday, May 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Nationals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 18-24 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 15-27 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -115 | -105 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -105 | -115 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+12.90 Units / 66% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+9.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 16 games (+8.70 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.60 Units / 69% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+8.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Luis Arraez has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 23 games at home (+7.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -110 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jon Berti | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Edward Cabrera | 5.5 -110 | 5.5 -115 |
| Mackenzie Gore | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +100 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 36 games (+14.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games (+10.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 19 away games (+8.60 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 19 away games (+6.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 31 games (+4.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+6.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 6 games (+3.95 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games (+3.05 Units / 8% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 27-15 against the Run Line (+10.65 Units / 20.74% ROI).
- 18-24 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.3 Units / 12.62% ROI
- 18-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -5 Units / -10.85% ROI
- 21-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.4 Units / 3.02% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 15-27 against the Run Line (-18.55 Units / -32.54% ROI).
- 21-21 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.2 Units / -0.41% ROI
- 19-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.05 Units / -10.95% ROI
- 22-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.1 Units / 2.37% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .128 (5-for-39) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .229 — 95th Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 36% (16 SO in 45 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 87th Percentile.
5 of MacKenzie Gore’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — tied for 7th most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 92nd Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .128 (5 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .377 — 98th Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Edward Cabrera has a strike rate of just 58% (188/326) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 19 of 65 batters (29%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 0 Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 30 of 164 batters (18%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Edward Cabrera has walked 18 of 105 batters (17%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 22-39 (.361) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 66-122 (.351) when underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .403.
The Nationals are just 13-68 (.160) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .298.
The Nationals are just 16-2 (.889) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 13-39 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .348.
The Marlins are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .316.
The Marlins are just 10-72 (.122) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .197.
The Marlins are just 70-12 (.854) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .911.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.70 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have just 82 strikeouts in 492 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have 56 extra-base hits out of 240 total hits (just 23%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have just 299 strikeouts in 1,585 PA’s (19%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters are slugging just .344 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .285 (1,617 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have 896 strikeouts in 3,313 PA’s (27%) against LHP since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .289 (3,313 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 33% over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 52% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Andrew Puk (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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