- The – are favorites vs the –
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Marlins starting pitcher: Eury Pérez
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Washington Nationals () visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins () on Thursday, May 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Miami.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 18-25 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 15-28 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | O | ||
| Marlins | U |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 70.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+14.40 Units / 71% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 away games (+10.20 Units / 45% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+9.25 Units / 42% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+7.70 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games at home (+7.30 Units / 89% ROI)
- Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- Garrett Hampson has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+6.95 Units / 32% ROI)
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Fortes | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Trevor Williams | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +120 |
| Eury Perez | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +110 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 37 games (+15.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 25 games (+9.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games (+5.80 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 away games (+5.05 Units / 25% ROI)
Marlins Best Bets Today:
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games at home (+7.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.85 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 32 games (+4.05 Units / 11% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 28-15 against the Run Line (+11.65 Units / 21.84% ROI).
- 18-25 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.3 Units / 10% ROI
- 18-22 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -13.02% ROI
- 22-18 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 5.06% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Marlins have gone 15-28 against the Run Line (-19.55 Units / -33.71% ROI).
- 22-21 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.8 Units / 1.6% ROI
- 19-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.2 Units / -13.12% ROI
- 23-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 4.43% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has a strikeout rate of just 4% (2 SO in 47 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 15% (48/328) against Trevor Williams this season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (133/260) of the time this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 16 total IP; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Trevor Williams struck out just 9% (13/148) of left-handed batters he faced in 2022 — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Eury Perez has limited playing time.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 24-115 (.173) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Nationals are just 23-41 (.359) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
The Nationals are just 2-7 (.222) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
The Nationals are just 13-68 (.160) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 10-50 (.167) when allowing 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
The Marlins are just 1-19 (.050) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .207.
The Marlins are just 1-12 (.077) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Marlins are just 10-72 (.122) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 83 strikeouts in 500 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 33% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have 503 extra-base hits out of 1,729 total hits (just 29%) since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals hitters have 95 extra-base hits out of 378 total hits (just 25%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OPS of just .632 (1,640 PA’s) against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .347 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .404.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .289 (3,336 PA’s) against LHP since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Marlins are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have struck out just 17% of left-handed batters they faced this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have won only 8% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 53% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 71% of their games at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Shoulder, D60
- Andrew Puk (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Toe, D10
- Johnny Cueto (Marlins): Bicep, D15
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Forearm , D15
- Nicholas Enright (Marlins): Illness, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jesús Sánchez (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- AvisaÃl GarcÃa (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Chad Kuhl (Nationals): Foot, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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