- The Marlins (62-89) are -200 favorites vs the Nationals (52-98)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (6-10), 5.28 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (13-8), 2.37 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Washington Nationals (+165) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-200) on Saturday, September 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:10pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5.
The Nationals vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 51-97 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 70-79 ATS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 | O 6.5 +100 | +165 |
| Marlins | -1.5 | U 6.5 -120 | -200 |
Nationals vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 31 of his last 43 away games (+23.15 Units / 52% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 44 away games (+18.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 41 games (+17.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 44 away games (+16.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Luke Voit has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+10.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Miguel Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- JJ Bleday has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+8.90 Units / 46% ROI)
Marlins vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
Marlins vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
Marlins vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Anderson | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Cooper | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Marlins vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +115 |
| Erick Fedde | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 76 of their last 137 games (+15.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 22 away games (+10.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 43 of their last 75 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 22 games at home (+10.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 42 games at home (+4.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 66-82 against the Run Line (-22.8 Units / -12.72% ROI).
- 51-97 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.8 Units / -10.95% ROI
- 70-69 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -3.56% ROI
- 69-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.3 Units / -4.51% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 70-79 against the Run Line (-20.35 Units / -10.36% ROI).
- 62-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.75 Units / -17.3% ROI
- 67-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.3 Units / -9.21% ROI
- 75-67 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.55 Units / 0.94% ROI
Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Erick Fedde has allowed an OBP of .323 (263 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total IP; League Avg: .238 — first Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 53% (875/1,661) when ahead in the count since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.
Erick Fedde has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 55% (452/828) of opposing batters since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 61% (1,332/2,194) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sandy Alcantara has a strike rate of 72% (949/1,321) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (94/520) against Sandy Alcantara since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (123/221) against Sandy Alcantara in two-strike counts this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 93rd Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has had second base stolen on him 22 times this season — 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Nationals are just 16-85 (.158) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 24-50 (.324) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Nationals are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 52-83 (.385) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Marlins are just 31-45 (.408) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Marlins are just 8-51 (.136) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Marlins are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Marlins are just 9-32 (.220) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .335.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are slugging just .483 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .559.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .333 (3,705 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Nationals hitters have 57 extra-base hits out of 224 total hits (just 25%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .272 (1,237 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .284 (2,933 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Marlins hitters have 808 strikeouts in 2,933 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .348 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 29% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (11 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 31% with two-strikes this month (20 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 21% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins have won just 25% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Marlins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 116 double plays in 987 opportunities (12%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Marlins vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D60
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Wendle (Marlins): Hamstring, D10
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Eyes, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Patrick Corbin (Nationals): Back, Day-to-Day
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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