- The Mets are -210 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+170) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-210) on Wednesday, April 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 8-14 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 13-11 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -115 | O 8 +100 | +170 |
| Mets | -1.5 -105 | U 8 -120 | -210 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+6.50 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 11 away games (+6.25 Units / 38% ROI)
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.85 Units / 41% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Total Bases Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 65% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 23 games (+6.80 Units / 29% ROI)
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Starling Marte | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
| Gore | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.20 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 away games (+7.05 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 away games (+5.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+5.25 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 38% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 18 games (+3.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 24 games (+3.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.25 Units / 11% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 13-9 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 16.02% ROI).
- 8-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 2.27% ROI
- 9-11 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.75 Units / -11.48% ROI
- 11-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 5.31% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 13-11 against the Run Line (+3 Units / 10.17% ROI).
- 14-10 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 4.29% ROI
- 10-13 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.3 Units / -16.14% ROI
- 13-10 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.2 Units / 8.41% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has walked 12 of 55 batters (22%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has allowed an OBP of .545 (22 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: .320 — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 51 of 395 batters (13%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 73 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore walked 4 of 23 batters (17%) — 4th highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 34% (32/93) against Kodai Senga when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 48% — third Percentile.
Kodai Senga has walked 6 of 22 batters (27%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (83/252) against Kodai Senga in non-two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 39% of Kodai Senga’s pitches (141/359) this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 8 total IP; League Avg: 47% — third Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 113-13 (.897) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals are just 0-111 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.
The Nationals are just 19-106 (.152) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Nationals are just 0-13 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .040.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 1-9 (.100) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .040.
The Mets are 102-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .955.
The Mets are just 0-8 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .096.
The Mets are 11-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .878.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals hitters have just 150 strikeouts in 837 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have put 42% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals hitters have 44 extra-base hits out of 187 total hits (just 23%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (4,869 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets hitters are slugging .796 against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .414.
Mets hitters have just 180 strikeouts in 926 PA’s (19%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of .751 (4,869 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 36% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 17% with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 56% of opposing batters this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Shoulder, D15
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Edwin DÃaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Left Ankle, D15
- Justin Verlander (Mets): Teres Major, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Elbow, D15
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Mets): Lat, D15
- Omar Narváez (Mets): Calf, D10
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back Spasms, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Elbow, D15
- José Quintana (Mets): Rib, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Nationals): Calf, D10
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals): Shoulder, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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