• The Mets are -220 favorites vs the Nationals
• Nationals vs Mets Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Nationals / Mets TV Channel: SNY | NATV

The Washington Nationals (+180) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-220) on April 30, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 pm in Flushing, NY.

This season, the Nationals are 14-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 10-20 ATS.

Nationals vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:

• Nationals starting pitcher: Miles Mikolas 0-3, 8.49 ERA
• Mets starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta 1-3, 3.90 ERA

Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 68.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

Bet now on Nationals vs Mets and all games with BetMGM

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

• Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+14.70 Units / 83% ROI)
• Daylen Lile has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+14.00 Units / 47% ROI)
• Brady House has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+11.60 Units / 232% ROI)
• Jorbit Vivas has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.50 Units / 52% ROI)
• James Wood has hit the Walks Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+10.05 Units / 36% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+15.45 Units / 62% ROI)
• Brett Baty has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.05 Units / 53% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.75 Units / 22% ROI)
• Juan Soto has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+10.62 Units / 42% ROI)
• Marcus Semien has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 30 away games (+17.20 Units / 57% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 23 away games (+12.30 Units / 42% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 40 games (+11.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+10.45 Units / 19% ROI)

Mets Best Bets Today:

• The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 19 games (+13.00 Units / 59% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 40 games (+3.40 Units / 8% ROI)
• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+2.05 Units / 13% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 18-12 against the Run Line (+3.05 Units / 7.3% ROI).

• 14-17 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.3 Units / 10.54% ROI
• 20-9 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.35 Units / 30.49% ROI
• 9-20 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.05 Units / -38.05% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Mets are 10-20 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -28.05% ROI).

• 10-20 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.65 Units / -45.38% ROI
• 12-15 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.55 Units / -13.77% ROI
• 15-12 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 5.01% ROI

Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Nationals are just 13-49 (.206) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .362.

The Nationals are just 9-4 (.692) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .854.

The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2025 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Nationals are just 79-113 (.409) since the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mets are just 6-3 (.667) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .854.

The Mets are just 0-86 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .045.

The Mets are just 9-17 (.346) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Mets are just 4-15 (.211) after a loss this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .477.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Nationals are batting just .157 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .247 (150 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of .795 (374 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB.

Nationals hitters have struck out in 25% of their PA’s against LHP since the 2025 season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Mets Hitting Stats & Trends

The Mets are batting just .175 with two outs this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .552 (346 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OPS of just .633 (836 PA’s) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB.

Mets hitters have an OBP of just .293 (836 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.55 (856.1 IP) at home since the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.31 (1704.2 IP) since the 2025 season — 2nd highest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Mets Pitching Stats & Trends

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% versus the bottom of the order this season — best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Mets pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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