- The Mets are -210 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Mets starting pitcher: Kodai Senga
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+170) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-210) on Thursday, July 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 43-59 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-62 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -110 | O 9 -105 | +170 |
| Mets | -1.5 -110 | U 9 -115 | -210 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 77.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 43 games (+15.20 Units / 26% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 18 away games (+13.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 24 games (+12.10 Units / 49% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 43 games (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 32 of his last 46 games (+17.40 Units / 33% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 22 games at home (+17.05 Units / 46% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+16.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+15.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+13.75 Units / 19% ROI)
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Brett Baty | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +125 |
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 48 away games (+14.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 49 away games (+12.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 away games (+7.80 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games at home (+14.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+8.75 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.75 Units / 20% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 games (+2.40 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 55-47 against the Run Line (+1.25 Units / 1% ROI).
- 43-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 6.77% ROI
- 50-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -1.68% ROI
- 47-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.35 Units / -6.59% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 39-62 against the Run Line (-32.45 Units / -24.98% ROI).
- 47-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -25.75 Units / -18.48% ROI
- 41-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.95 Units / -18.81% ROI
- 56-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.8 Units / 9.73% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .375 (18-for-48) against Josiah Gray on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 — third Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 51 of 489 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .684 (67 Total Bases / 98 ABs) on fastballs away since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: .377 — 0 Percentile.
18 of Josiah Gray’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 96th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kodai Senga has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 51% (327/640) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Kodai Senga has allowed a slugging percentage of just .130 (13 Total Bases / 100 ABs) on low non-fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .317 — 100th Percentile.
Kodai Senga has a strikeout rate of 54% (63 SO in 117 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .172 (22-for-128) against Kodai Senga versus the 2-3-4 hitters this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .258 — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 30-58 (.341) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Nationals are just 16-28 (.364) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .541.
The Nationals are just 51-36 (.586) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Nationals are just 30-142 (.174) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .287.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 129-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Mets are just 3-11 (.214) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.
The Mets are just 5-24 (.172) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .275.
The Mets are just 32-16 (.667) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .781.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 716 strikeouts in 3,831 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals are just 2-10 (.167) against the run line (-57.6% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Nationals hitters have just 475 strikeouts in 2,549 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in just 36% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Mets are just 7-23 (.233) against the run line (-58.3% ROI) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Mets are batting just .222 at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Mets hitters have just 634 strikeouts in 3,076 PA’s (21%) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 64% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mets pitchers have walked 85 of 882 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraine, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D15
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Paolo Espino (Nationals): Finger, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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