- The Mets are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer
- Watch the game on WPIX
The Washington Nationals (+155) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-190) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 43-60 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 39-63 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | O 8.5 -105 | +155 |
| Mets | -1.5 +105 | U 8.5 -115 | -190 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 77.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 22 away games (+17.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 19 away games (+14.45 Units / 55% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 44 games (+14.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+13.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+11.70 Units / 25% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 47 games (+18.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 23 games at home (+18.05 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+17.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games at home (+17.35 Units / 62% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+14.20 Units / 42% ROI)
Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Danny Mendick | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Mark Canha | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Scherzer | 5.5 -175 | 5.5 +130 |
| Mackenzie Gore | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 away games (+13.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 49 away games (+13.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 away games (+6.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 47% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+15.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+8.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+5.75 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+4.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.40 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 56-47 against the Run Line (+2.25 Units / 1.78% ROI).
- 43-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 5.76% ROI
- 50-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.05 Units / -2.67% ROI
- 48-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.35 Units / -5.64% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 39-63 against the Run Line (-33.55 Units / -25.61% ROI).
- 48-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.75 Units / -17.49% ROI
- 41-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.1 Units / -19.64% ROI
- 57-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.8 Units / 10.54% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .163 (15-for-92) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .221 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 29% (133/465) against MacKenzie Gore since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 33% (37 SO in 112 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 82nd Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 43 of 435 batters (10%) this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 10th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (43/136) against Max Scherzer this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .233 (10-for-43) against Max Scherzer on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 14% (5/35) against Max Scherzer over the last 30 days (5 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Max Scherzer has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (289/415) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 30-143 (.173) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
The Nationals are just 30-58 (.341) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Nationals are just 5-7 (.417) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Nationals are just 2-153 (.013) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are just 3-11 (.214) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Mets are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Mets are just 15-20 (.429) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 130-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.75 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have just 480 strikeouts in 2,574 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have just 1,402 strikeouts in 6,958 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mets are just 7-24 (.226) against the run line (-59.6% ROI) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .490.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (6,958 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Mets have scored first in just 36% of their road games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 64% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets pitchers have walked 375 of 3,830 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
- Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
- Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
- Starling Marte (Mets): Migraine, D10
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
- Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D15
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Paolo Espino (Nationals): Finger, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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