Nationals vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 29

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 29, 2023, 3:33 PM
  • The Mets are -165 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-165) on Saturday, July 29, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Nationals are 43-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 40-63 ATS.

Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -135O 9.5 -110+140
Mets -1.5 +110U 9.5 -110-165

Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 60.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 away games (+16.05 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 20 away games (+15.45 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 45 games (+13.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 22 away games (+12.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+12.30 Units / 46% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+17.30 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 47 games (+16.75 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+16.35 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 24 games at home (+16.35 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Mark Canha has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.25 Units / 41% ROI)

Mets vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Meneses 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Tommy Pham 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
Alex Call 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Mark Canha 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +275 0.5 -450

Mets vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Meneses 1.5 +200 1.5 -275
Tommy Pham 1.5 +170 1.5 -225
Alex Call 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Mark Canha 0.5 -275 0.5 +200
Francisco Lindor 1.5 +150 1.5 -200

Mets vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Meneses 0.5 +155 0.5 -210
Tommy Pham 0.5 +110 0.5 -145
Alex Call 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Mark Canha 0.5 +135 0.5 -175
Francisco Lindor 0.5 +120 0.5 -155

Mets vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Carlos Carrasco 3.5 -135 3.5 +105
Patrick Corbin 3.5 -145 3.5 +110
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 50 away games (+12.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 51 away games (+12.60 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+5.50 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+16.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+9.75 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+5.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games at home (+5.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.40 Units / 16% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 56-48 against the Run Line (+0.9 Units / 0.7% ROI).

  • 43-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.1 Units / 4.77% ROI
  • 50-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.2 Units / -3.64% ROI
  • 49-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.35 Units / -4.71% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 40-63 against the Run Line (-32.4 Units / -24.55% ROI).

  • 49-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.75 Units / -16.56% ROI
  • 41-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.25 Units / -20.46% ROI
  • 58-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +12.8 Units / 11.32% ROI

Opponents are hitting .402 (35-for-87) against Patrick Corbin on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .257 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .306 (151-for-493) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .312 (128-for-410) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (31/188) against Patrick Corbin on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — fifth Percentile.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .486 (68-for-140) against Carlos Carrasco when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .339 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .737 (87 Total Bases / 118 ABs) on inside fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: .426 — 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed an OPS of 1.491 (176 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 1.060 — first Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco has allowed a slugging percentage of .900 (36 Total Bases / 40 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .432 — first Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Nationals are just 30-58 (.341) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.

The Nationals are just 5-7 (.417) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.

The Nationals are just 16-28 (.364) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .541.

The Nationals are just 34-63 (.351) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mets are just 3-11 (.214) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .421.

The Mets are 131-1 (.992) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .952.

The Mets are just 5-24 (.172) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.

The Mets are 124-9 (.932) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .871.

Nationals hitters have just 487 strikeouts in 2,605 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have just 243 strikeouts in 1,297 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.75 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Nationals are just 2-10 (.167) against the run line (-57.6% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.

Mets hitters have just 1,406 strikeouts in 6,971 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets hitters have just 562 strikeouts in 2,677 PA’s (21%) against RHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .331 (6,971 PA’s) against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

The Mets have a winning percentage of 57% since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 64% of their games on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Mets pitchers have walked 377 of 3,864 batters (10%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Samuel Coonrod (Mets): Lat, D60
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Leg, D10
  • Edwin Díaz (Mets): Knee, D60
  • Edwin Uceta (Mets): Ankle, D60
  • Starling Marte (Mets): Migraine, D10
  • Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Timothy Locastro (Mets): Back, D60
  • Elieser Hernández (Mets): Pec, D15
  • Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Paolo Espino (Nationals): Finger, D15
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.