- The Mets are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Steven Cavalli, 3.00 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Washington Nationals (+145) visit Clover Park to take on the New York Mets (-175) on Tuesday, March 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Port St Lucie.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Nationals are 5-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 5-6 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -140 | O 9 -120 | +145 |
| Mets | -1.5 +115 | U 9 +100 | -175 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 71.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Israel Pineda has hit the Singles Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.50 Units / 110% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 away games (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 27 away games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 25 away games (+2.50 Units / 9% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 games at home (+23.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 78 games at home (+23.27 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 7-6 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -3.24% ROI).
- 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.77% ROI
- 4-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.95 Units / -41.61% ROI
- 9-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 31.82% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 5-6 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -10.14% ROI).
- 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.85 Units / -33.33% ROI
- 9-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.95 Units / 57.68% ROI
- 2-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.9 Units / -64.75% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cade Cavalli has limited playing time.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a swing rate of just 37% (112/304) against David Peterson on changeups last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 52% — first Percentile.
David Peterson threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 51% (149/291) of opposing batters right-handed hitters last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (193/368) of opposing batters last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 53% (239/448) of right-handed hitters since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Nationals are just 74-118 (.385) at home since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.
The Nationals are just 6-100 (.057) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are 47-34 (.580) on the road last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 44-11 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters struck out just 844 times in 4,294 PA’s (20%) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mets batted .265 on the road last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .325 (8,358 PA’s) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .288 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Mets pitchers have walked 174 of 2,834 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
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