Nationals vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 14

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 14, 2023, 11:47 AM
  • The Mets are -175 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Steven Cavalli, 3.00 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson, 0.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Washington Nationals (+145) visit Clover Park to take on the New York Mets (-175) on Tuesday, March 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Port St Lucie.

The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

During Spring Training, the Nationals are 5-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 5-6 ATS.

Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -140O 9 -120+145
Mets -1.5 +115U 9 +100-175

Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 71.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Nationals vs Mets and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Yadiel Hernandez has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Israel Pineda has hit the Singles Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Travis Jankowski has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.50 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Travis Jankowski has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Travis Jankowski has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Starling Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 52 away games (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 27 away games (+7.50 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 95 games (+7.45 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 27 away games (+6.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 13 of their last 25 away games (+2.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 games at home (+23.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 78 games at home (+23.27 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 53 games (+6.35 Units / 10% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 7-6 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -3.24% ROI).

  • 5-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.77% ROI
  • 4-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.95 Units / -41.61% ROI
  • 9-4 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.55 Units / 31.82% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 5-6 against the Run Line (-1.45 Units / -10.14% ROI).

  • 4-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.85 Units / -33.33% ROI
  • 9-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.95 Units / 57.68% ROI
  • 2-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.9 Units / -64.75% ROI

Cade Cavalli has limited playing time.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents had a swing rate of just 37% (112/304) against David Peterson on changeups last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 52% — first Percentile.

David Peterson threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 51% (149/291) of opposing batters right-handed hitters last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson threw at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 52% (193/368) of opposing batters last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 53% (239/448) of right-handed hitters since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 66% — first Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Nationals are just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Nationals are just 26-55 (.321) at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Nationals are just 74-118 (.385) at home since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .538.

The Nationals are just 6-100 (.057) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mets are 47-34 (.580) on the road last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Mets are 44-11 (.800) when scoring in the first inning last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 34% last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Mets hitters struck out just 844 times in 4,294 PA’s (20%) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Mets batted .265 on the road last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .240.

Mets hitters have an OBP of .325 (8,358 PA’s) against RHP since the start of the 2021 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of .288 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Mets pitchers have walked 174 of 2,834 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
  • Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported

Bet now on Nationals vs Mets and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

BetMGM First Bet Offer $1,500
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.