Nationals vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 2

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 02, 2022, 11:02 AM
  • The Mets (84-48) are -275 favorites vs the Nationals (45-86)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (7-8), 4.67 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: David Peterson (7-3), 3.21 ERA
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Washington Nationals (+220) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-275) on Friday, September 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.

The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).

The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 44-84 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 71-58 ATS.

Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 +105O 8 -115+220
Mets -1.5 -130U 8 -105-275

Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Friday‘s matchup with 61.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 29 away games (+18.65 Units / 62% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 22 games (+16.80 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 away games (+13.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.35 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 away games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 33 games (+15.85 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 50 games (+14.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+12.25 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 34 games at home (+11.30 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 games at home (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 67 of their last 118 games (+14.95 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 away games (+9.25 Units / 115% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+3.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 76 of their last 132 games (+14.57 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+6.55 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 14 games at home (+4.35 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.10 Units / 22% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 55-73 against the Run Line (-25.8 Units / -16.46% ROI).

  • 44-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.35 Units / -14.51% ROI
  • 63-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -0.49% ROI
  • 58-63 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -7.53% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 71-58 against the Run Line (+13.95 Units / 8.78% ROI).

  • 83-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +20.5 Units / 10.13% ROI
  • 64-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -0.11% ROI
  • 58-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -12 Units / -8.48% ROI

Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .821 (161 Total Bases / 196 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .542 — 0 Percentile.

Josiah Gray has walked 36 of 236 left-handed batters (15%) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.

Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 56% (558/998) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .656 (61 Total Bases / 93 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .371 — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

David Peterson has thrown his changeup for a strike just 46% (121/265) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

David Peterson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (203/382) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 62% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has a strike rate of just 57% (670/1,166) in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.

David Peterson has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 53% (211/401) of right-handed hitters since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 66% — 0 Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Nationals are just 15-76 (.165) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

The Nationals are just 7-73 (.088) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Nationals are just 22-47 (.319) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Nationals are just 45-73 (.381) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Mets are just 7-11 (.389) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Mets are 28-6 (.824) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .710.

The Mets are 73-5 (.936) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Mets are 39-6 (.867) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Nationals have grounded 276 double plays since the start of last season — most in MLB.

Nationals hitters have just 1,559 strikeouts in 7,502 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .266 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.

The Mets have scored first in 73% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

The Mets are batting .356 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .335.

The Mets are batting .187 with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .170.

Nationals pitchers have walked 466 of 5,076 batters (9%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 8% of innings played since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets pitchers have walked 70 of 1,176 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Mets pitchers have walked 160 of 2,561 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
  • John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
  • Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
  • Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
  • Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
  • Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
  • Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Left Calf, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.