- The Mets (85-48) are -450 favorites vs the Nationals (45-87)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (5-17), 6.55 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Maxwell Scherzer (9-4), 2.27 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Washington Nationals (+333) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-450) on Saturday, September 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-120).
The Nationals vs Mets Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 44-85 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 72-58 ATS.
Nationals vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 +100 | O 7 +100 | +333 |
| Mets | -2.5 -120 | U 7 -120 | -450 |
Nationals vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 22 of his last 29 away games (+18.65 Units / 62% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 22 games (+16.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 away games (+13.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.35 Units / 51% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 30 away games (+11.85 Units / 28% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 33 games (+15.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 50 games (+14.25 Units / 13% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 42 games (+12.25 Units / 28% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 34 games at home (+11.30 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 games at home (+11.05 Units / 35% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 68 of their last 119 games (+15.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 9 away games (+8.25 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 away games (+2.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 77 of their last 133 games (+15.57 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games (+10.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games at home (+5.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games at home (+5.10 Units / 25% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 55-74 against the Run Line (-26.8 Units / -16.99% ROI).
- 44-85 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.35 Units / -15.14% ROI
- 64-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.35 Units / 0.24% ROI
- 58-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.8 Units / -8.35% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 72-58 against the Run Line (+14.95 Units / 9.34% ROI).
- 84-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.5 Units / 10.48% ROI
- 65-58 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 0.63% ROI
- 58-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.25 Units / -9.29% ROI
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .341 (296 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .239 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (608/1,413) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 97th Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 8.83 (53.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 4.00 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .535 (108 Total Bases / 202 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .367 — 0 Percentile.
Maxwell Scherzer: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 13% (7/53) against Max Scherzer when he’s behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 0 Percentile.
Max Scherzer has allowed an OPS of just .530 (608 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: .715 — 99th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has walked 16 of 608 right-handed batters (3%) since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Max Scherzer has a strikeout rate of 33% (384 SO in 1,176 PAs) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 145 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Nationals are just 15-77 (.163) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
The Nationals are just 9-175 (.049) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
The Nationals are just 108-24 (.818) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Nationals are just 45-73 (.381) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Mets are just 7-11 (.389) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Mets are 38-9 (.809) when scoring in the first inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .667.
The Mets are 74-3 (.961) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are 40-6 (.870) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 723 strikeouts in 3,495 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have 50 extra-base hits out of 193 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .336 (3,495 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have an OBP of .323 (7,545 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .334 (3,481 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Mets hitters have a groundball batting average of .265 against the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .221.
The Mets have scored first in 73% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.62 (527.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Nationals pitchers have walked 470 of 5,112 batters (9%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 70 of 1,185 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 27% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Mets vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Luis Guillorme (Mets): Groin, D10
- Carlos Carrasco (Mets): Side, D15
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Left Calf, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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