- The Orioles are -160 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals vs Orioles Over / Under today: 10 Runs
- Nationals / Orioles TV Channel: MASN | FS1 | MAS2
The Washington Nationals (+125) visit Oriole Park at Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles (-150) on Saturday, May 17, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Baltimore, MD.
This season, the Nationals are 19-27 against the spread (ATS), while the Orioles are 14-29 ATS.
Nationals vs Orioles Starting Pitchers Today:
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 2-1, 4.05 ERA
- Orioles starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson 0-2, 13.13 ERA
Nationals vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -155 | O 10.5 -105 | +125 |
| Orioles | -1.5 +125 | U 10.5 -115 | -150 |
Nationals vs Orioles Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Orioles will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+11.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+11.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 5 games (+5.25 Units / 64% ROI)
- Amed Rosario has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.25 Units / 43% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Orioles players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Orioles Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Emmanuel Rivera has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+5.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kyle Gibson has hit the Earned Runs Over in his last 5 games (+5.20 Units / 90% ROI)
- Kyle Gibson has hit the Strikeouts Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 57% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
Orioles Best Bets Today:
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 22-24 against the Run Line (-5.85 Units / -9.97% ROI).
- 19-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.82 Units / -9.94% ROI
- 21-23 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.75 Units / -7.48% ROI
- 23-21 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.1 Units / -0.2% ROI
Orioles Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Orioles are 14-29 against the Run Line (-17.46 Units / -32.13% ROI).
- 15-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.2 Units / -36.45% ROI
- 19-21 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.73 Units / -7.92% ROI
- 21-19 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.18 Units / 0.38% ROI
Orioles vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Heston Kjerstad (BAL) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Cedric Mullins (BAL) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
Orioles vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| James Wood (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Ryan O'Hearn (BAL) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
Orioles vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adley Rutschman (BAL) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Keibert Ruiz (WAS) | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Gunnar Henderson (BAL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Ryan Mountcastle (BAL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Nathaniel Lowe (WAS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
Orioles vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Gibson (BAL) | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +115 |
| Jake Irvin (WAS) | 4.5 +140 | 4.5 -185 |
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Irvin has a in-zone of 59% (481/809) this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has a in-zone of 61% (203/333) against right-handed batters this season — best among among NL Starters; League Avg: 50% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 33% of the time (253/767) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Jake Irvin has a in-zone of 66% (94/143) with runners in scoring position this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.
Orioles Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Gibson had a strike rate of just 56% (351/633) with runners in scoring position in the 2024 season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Kyle Gibson had a strike rate of just 60% (1,651/2,764) in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Kyle Gibson located his fastball up for a strike just 48% (163/340) of the time in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .286 (154-for-539) against Kyle Gibson when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2023 season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — 10th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Orioles
The Nationals were just 20-43 (.317) vs top 10 scoring offenses in the 2024 season They play the Dodgers (second best runs scored) today.
The Nationals were just 27-44 (.380) after a win in the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Nationals are just 88-100 (.466) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 34-54 (.382) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
Orioles Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Orioles are just 2-13 (.133) after a win this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Orioles are just 4-25 (.138) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Orioles are just 8-13 (.381) at home this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .567.
The Orioles are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters put 41% of their swings in play against LHP in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals batted just .226 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Nationals hitters struck out just 1,149 times in 6,085 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters put 39% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2023 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Orioles Hitting Stats & Trends
Orioles hitters have an OPS of just .541 (457 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Orioles hitters are slugging .770 with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
The Orioles are batting just .194 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Orioles hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 38%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have allowed 2.15 runs per game (99/46) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.35.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes in 2023 — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .320 against Nationals pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Orioles Pitching Stats & Trends
Orioles pitchers have walked 13% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Orioles pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .167 against Orioles pitchers this month (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Orioles have won 37% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
More MLB Reading:
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