Nationals vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 18

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 18, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Padres (66-54) are -375 favorites vs the Nationals (39-80)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Aníbal Sánchez (0-5), 7.20 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Yu Darvish (10-6), 3.39 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The Washington Nationals (+290) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-375) on Thursday, August 18, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Nationals vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 39-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 56-64 ATS.

Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+2.5 -110O 8 -110+290
Padres -2.5 -110U 8 -110-375

Nationals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Thursday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 23 away games (+11.20 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Nelson Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.50 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 31 away games (+7.70 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+16.75 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+15.70 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 games at home (+14.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 44 games (+14.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 60% ROI)

Padres vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Josh Bell 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Padres vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Josh Bell 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Padres vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +100 0.5 -140
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jorge Alfaro 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Josh Bell 0.5 +135 0.5 -190

Padres vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Yu Darvish 6.5 +105 6.5 -155
Anibal Sanchez 3.5 +100 3.5 -145
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 62 of their last 106 games (+17.55 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 98 games (+7.05 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 26 games (+0.95 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 52 of their last 95 games (+12.85 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 24 games (+4.25 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+3.10 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.75 Units / 17% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 50-69 against the Run Line (-27.6 Units / -18.94% ROI).

  • 39-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -23 Units / -18.65% ROI
  • 59-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.8 Units / 0.61% ROI
  • 53-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.25 Units / -8.64% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 56-64 against the Run Line (-10.65 Units / -7.18% ROI).

  • 66-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.3 Units / -3.02% ROI
  • 56-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.35 Units / -7.9% ROI
  • 61-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.15 Units / -0.86% ROI

Anibal Sanchez has allowed a slugging percentage of .774 (24 Total Bases / 31 ABs) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .385 — second Percentile.

Anibal Sanchez has allowed an OPS of 1.234 (37 PA’s) against right-handed batters this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .683 — second Percentile.

Anibal Sanchez has a strikeout rate of just 24% (9 SO in 38 PAs) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.

Anibal Sanchez has allowed an OPS of .991 (69 PA’s) this month (3 games) — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .679 — third Percentile.

Yu Darvish: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Yu Darvish has allowed a slugging percentage of just .062 (4 Total Bases / 65 ABs) on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .359 — 100th Percentile.

Yu Darvish has a strikeout rate of 53% (8 SO in 15 PAs) with runners in scoring position this month (2 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .160 (57-for-356) against Yu Darvish’s fastball since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: .262 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .046 (3-for-65) against Yu Darvish on fastballs away this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 100th Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Nationals are just 19-44 (.302) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Nationals are just 12-71 (.145) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Nationals are just 39-67 (.368) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 67-107 (.385) at home since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Padres are 33-24 (.579) at home this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Padres are 22-8 (.733) when scoring in the first inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .665.

The Padres are 17-2 (.895) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .794.

The Padres are 54-18 (.750) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 45 double plays in 334 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 271 double plays in 2,068 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .338 (3,248 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Padres hitters are slugging just .373 against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Padres hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in 1,485 of their 4,494 plate appearances (33%) versus relief pitchers since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 58% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

Padres hitters are slugging .232 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 6.02 (136.0 IP) this month (16 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.94 (468.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 3rd longest in MLB; League Avg: 459.5

Padres pitchers have walked 63 of 1,072 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .190 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .191 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

Padres vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Luis García (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.