Nationals vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 21, 2022, 9:11 AM
  • The Padres (67-56) are -275 favorites vs the Nationals (41-81)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (4-16), 6.96 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (6-6), 4.82 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Washington Nationals (+220) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-275) on Sunday, August 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).

The Nationals vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 40-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 56-65 ATS.

Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+2.5 -135O 8.5 +100+220
Padres -2.5 +110U 8.5 -120-275

Nationals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s matchup with 60.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Nationals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 away games (+15.10 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.25 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 away games (+10.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 away games (+8.85 Units / 24% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 40 of his last 52 games (+15.35 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+13.40 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+13.35 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.05 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 63 of their last 109 games (+16.20 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 away games (+7.20 Units / 143% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 54 of their last 98 games (+13.85 Units / 13% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 51-69 against the Run Line (-26.25 Units / -17.89% ROI).

  • 40-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.1 Units / -16.17% ROI
  • 60-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.35% ROI
  • 53-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -9.37% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 56-65 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -8.14% ROI).

  • 66-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -4.91% ROI
  • 57-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -7.08% ROI
  • 61-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.63% ROI

Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 9.44 (47.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 4.00 — 0 Percentile.

Division opponents are hitting .358 (78-for-218) against Patrick Corbin this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .245 — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .261 (64-for-245) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .170 — 0 Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .726 (277 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .504 — 0 Percentile.

Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Sean Manaea has a strikeout rate of 48% (128 SO in 264 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 89th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .265 (54-for-204) against Sean Manaea’s non-fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — seventh Percentile.

Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .233 (30 Total Bases / 129 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .367 — 93rd Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .127 (30-for-236) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — 91st Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Nationals are just 19-44 (.302) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Nationals are just 106-16 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Nationals are just 41-68 (.376) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 13-72 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Padres are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.

The Padres are 23-6 (.793) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Padres are 22-8 (.733) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Padres are 33-30 (.524) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 45 double plays in 345 opportunities (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Nationals hitters have just 615 strikeouts in 3,085 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres hitters have drawn 313 walks in 3,267 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres hitters have drawn 74 walks in 581 PA’s (13%) against RHP this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres hitters have chased 22% of pitches out of the zone over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (494.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 8.18 (55.0 IP) against division opponents this month (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .176 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.

Padres pitchers have walked 39 of 743 batters (5%) this month (20 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres pitchers have walked 65 of 1,099 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Padres vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Louis Voit (Nationals): foot, Day-to-Day
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Luis García (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Left Calf, D10
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.