- The Padres (67-56) are -275 favorites vs the Nationals (41-81)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (4-16), 6.96 ERA
- Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (6-6), 4.82 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+220) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-275) on Sunday, August 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Nationals vs Padres Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 40-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 56-65 ATS.
Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -135 | O 8.5 +100 | +220 |
| Padres | -2.5 +110 | U 8.5 -120 | -275 |
Nationals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s matchup with 60.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 26 away games (+15.10 Units / 56% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.25 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 27 away games (+10.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.65 Units / 70% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 away games (+8.85 Units / 24% ROI)
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 40 of his last 52 games (+15.35 Units / 14% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+13.55 Units / 28% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 50 games (+13.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 26 games (+13.35 Units / 41% ROI)
- Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+13.05 Units / 49% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 63 of their last 109 games (+16.20 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 away games (+7.20 Units / 143% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Padres: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 54 of their last 98 games (+13.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 51-69 against the Run Line (-26.25 Units / -17.89% ROI).
- 40-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.1 Units / -16.17% ROI
- 60-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.8 Units / 1.35% ROI
- 53-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -9.37% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 56-65 against the Run Line (-12.2 Units / -8.14% ROI).
- 66-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -4.91% ROI
- 57-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -7.08% ROI
- 61-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.2 Units / -1.63% ROI
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 9.44 (47.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 4.00 — 0 Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .358 (78-for-218) against Patrick Corbin this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .245 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .261 (64-for-245) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .170 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .726 (277 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .504 — 0 Percentile.
Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sean Manaea has a strikeout rate of 48% (128 SO in 264 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 89th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .265 (54-for-204) against Sean Manaea’s non-fastballs this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .218 — seventh Percentile.
Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .233 (30 Total Bases / 129 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .367 — 93rd Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .127 (30-for-236) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes this season — 6th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — 91st Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 19-44 (.302) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Nationals are just 106-16 (.869) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Nationals are just 41-68 (.376) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Nationals are just 13-72 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are just 2-42 (.045) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .087.
The Padres are 23-6 (.793) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Padres are 22-8 (.733) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Padres are 33-30 (.524) on the road this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have grounded into 45 double plays in 345 opportunities (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have just 615 strikeouts in 3,085 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Padres hitters have drawn 313 walks in 3,267 PA’s (10%) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have drawn 74 walks in 581 PA’s (13%) against RHP this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres hitters have chased 22% of pitches out of the zone over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (494.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 8.18 (55.0 IP) against division opponents this month (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .176 against Padres pitchers with the shift this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .219.
Padres pitchers have walked 39 of 743 batters (5%) this month (20 games) — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Padres pitchers have walked 65 of 1,099 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Padres vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tayler Scott (Padres): Finger, D15
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
- Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
- Craig Stammen (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Louis Voit (Nationals): foot, Day-to-Day
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Luis García (Nationals): Groin, D10
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Left Calf, D10
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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