- The Padres are -275 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Padres starting pitcher: Joseph Musgrove
- Watch the game on SDPA
The Washington Nationals (+220) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-275) on Friday, June 23, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+110).
The Nationals vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 28-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 36-39 ATS.
Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -135 | O 8 +100 | +220 |
| Padres | -2.5 +110 | U 8 -120 | -275 |
Nationals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 88.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 48 games (+20.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 48 games (+17.25 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 26 of his last 34 games (+13.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+9.30 Units / 27% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Brandon Dixon has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
Padres vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Padres vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Padres vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rougned Odor | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
Padres vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
| Joe Musgrove | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 34 away games (+13.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 33 away games (+7.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 away games (+6.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 29 away games (+4.75 Units / 15% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 68 games (+21.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 65 games (+12.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 41-33 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 3.87% ROI).
- 28-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.6 Units / -3.47% ROI
- 33-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.75 Units / -9.46% ROI
- 37-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 1.67% ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 36-39 against the Run Line (-6.95 Units / -7.43% ROI).
- 36-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.45 Units / -15.31% ROI
- 26-46 when betting on the total runs Over for -25.85 Units / -30.72% ROI
- 46-26 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.85 Units / 22% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 14% (54 SO in 382 PAs) this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .418 (28-for-67) against Patrick Corbin on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .250 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .321 (95-for-296) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has a strikeout rate of just 8% (7 SO in 88 PAs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — first Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 47% (44/94) against Joe Musgrove — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has a strikeout rate of just 21% (6 SO in 28 PAs) with two-strikes — 5th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — sixth Percentile.
Joe Musgrove has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 86.1 MPH against his fastballs since last season (236 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 90.5
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of 38% (103/269) against Joe Musgrove this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 29 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 28-55 (.337) after a win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Nationals are just 26-54 (.325) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 83-153 (.352) since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 29-51 (.362) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are 29-4 (.879) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Padres are 25-34 (.424) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are 7-7 (.500) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
The Padres are just 7-35 (.167) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .272.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 33% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 337 strikeouts in 1,816 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.74 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals are just 2-8 (.200) against the run line (-49.1% ROI) after a win as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 644 walks in 6,346 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Padres are batting just .219 with runners on base this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Padres hitters have drawn 230 walks in 1,998 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters are slugging just .375 against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,805 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .225.
Padres vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Thomas Cosgrove (Padres): Hamstring, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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