- The Padres are -190 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Padres starting pitcher: Matthew Waldron
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+155) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-190) on Saturday, June 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40pm EDT in San Diego.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Nationals vs Padres Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are ATS.
Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -120 | O 9 -110 | +155 |
| Padres | -1.5 +100 | U 9 -110 | -190 |
Nationals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 78.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+19.25 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 49 games (+16.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in his last 14 games (+14.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 30 games (+11.30 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
- Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.70 Units / 71% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Manny Machado has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.40 Units / 40% ROI)
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.40 Units / 31% ROI)
Padres vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
Padres vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Padres vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| C.J. Abrams | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
Padres vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 34 away games (+13.40 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 33 away games (+7.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 20 of their last 33 away games (+6.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 17 of their last 29 away games (+4.75 Units / 15% ROI)
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 68 games (+21.10 Units / 29% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 40 of their last 65 games (+12.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.60 Units / 16% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- away moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- away total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- away total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone against the Run Line ( Units / ROI).
- home moneyline record when betting on the Moneyline for ML units Units / ML ROI ROI
- home total over record when betting on the total runs Over for over units Units / over ROI ROI
- home total under record when betting on the total runs Under for under units Units / under ROI ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a .489 SLG vs right-handed batters (third worst)– fourth Percentile and just .333 vs left-handed batters this season (ninth best among qualified SPs)– 84th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has located his fastball up for a strike just 46% (80/176) of the time this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 25 of 170 left-handed batters (15%) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 9% — fourth Percentile.
Josiah Gray has struck out just 17% (33/191) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 13th Percentile.
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .598.
The Nationals are just 28-55 (.337) after a win since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Nationals are just 27-132 (.170) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
The Nationals are just 26-54 (.325) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Padres are 8-7 (.533) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Padres are just 33-7 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .894.
The Padres are 26-34 (.433) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Padres are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have drawn 114 walks in 1,843 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Nationals hitters have just 178 strikeouts in 965 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.70 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have drawn 232 walks in 2,015 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have drawn 315 walks in 2,871 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .400 (255 PA’s) with bases empty over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Padres hitters have an OPS of .784 (856 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .740.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have struck out just 17% of left-handed batters they faced this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.7 MPH (1,821 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .193 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .225.
Padres vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
- Thomas Cosgrove (Padres): Hamstring, D15
- Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
- Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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