Nationals vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 25, 2023, 3:34 PM
  • The Padres are -200 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals starting pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
  • Padres starting pitcher: Jacob Lugo
  • Watch the game on SDPA

The Washington Nationals (+165) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-200) on Sunday, June 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).

The Nationals vs Padres Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

This season, the Nationals are 29-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 37-40 ATS.

Nationals vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -120O 8 -105+165
Padres -1.5 +100U 8 -115-200

Nationals vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 81.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+20.50 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+17.25 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Corey Dickerson has hit the Runs Under in his last 15 games (+15.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Jeimer Candelario has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 31 games (+12.30 Units / 30% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Michael Wacha has hit the Earned Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.15 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Brandon Dixon has hit the Runs Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.70 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+7.40 Units / 23% ROI)

Padres vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Meneses 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Dominic Smith 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000

Padres vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Meneses 1.5 +190 1.5 -250
Dominic Smith 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 -185 0.5 +140
C.J. Abrams 0.5 -165 0.5 +130
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -210 0.5 +160

Padres vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Meneses 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Dominic Smith 0.5 +195 0.5 -275
Jeimer Candelario 0.5 +185 0.5 -250
C.J. Abrams 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +230 0.5 -350

Padres vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Mackenzie Gore 5.5 +105 5.5 -140
Seth Lugo 3.5 -160 3.5 +120
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 36 away games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 19 of their last 27 games (+10.95 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 35 away games (+8.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 away games (+5.75 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 31 away games (+4.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 70 games (+20.95 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+11.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.15 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.45 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.30 Units / 14% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 42-34 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 3.78% ROI).

  • 29-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -2 Units / -2.6% ROI
  • 34-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.9 Units / -9.39% ROI
  • 38-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.2 Units / 1.44% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 37-40 against the Run Line (-6.95 Units / -7.24% ROI).

  • 37-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.25 Units / -15.4% ROI
  • 27-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -26 Units / -30.11% ROI
  • 47-27 when betting on the total runs Under for +17.7 Units / 21.24% ROI

MacKenzie Gore has allowed a slugging percentage of just .127 (9 Total Bases / 71 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .366 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .099 (7-for-71) against MacKenzie Gore’s elevated fastball this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .219 — 100th Percentile.

MacKenzie Gore has walked 34 of 344 batters (10%) this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 12th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 30% (215/712) against MacKenzie Gore this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 90th Percentile.

Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 19% (90/472) against Seth Lugo since last season — 4th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 29% — fourth Percentile.

Seth Lugo has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (174/373) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 30 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.

Right-handed batters are hitting .277 (69-for-249) against Seth Lugo since last season — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .227 — ninth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (77/130) against Seth Lugo in two-strike counts since last season — 9th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 45% — 91st Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Nationals are just 28-132 (.175) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Nationals are just 1-141 (.007) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.

The Nationals are just 26-54 (.325) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .518.

The Nationals are just 30-52 (.366) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .576.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Padres are 8-7 (.533) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .270.

The Padres are just 1-2 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Padres are 30-4 (.882) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .786.

The Padres are just 5-14 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .392.

Nationals hitters have put 40% of their swings in play on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Nationals hitters have just 527 strikeouts in 2,844 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have just 576 strikeouts in 2,919 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have just 348 strikeouts in 1,872 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Padres hitters have drawn 236 walks in 2,048 PA’s (12%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres hitters have drawn 650 walks in 6,396 PA’s (10%) against RHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres hitters have drawn 319 walks in 2,904 PA’s (11%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Padres hitters are slugging just .376 against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.

The Nationals have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 37% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Avg of just 36% against the Padres pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.8 MPH (1,850 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .192 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .226.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Padres pitchers over the last 30 days (27 games) — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Padres vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
  • José Castillo (Padres): Shoulder, D15
  • Preston Tucker (Padres): Foot, D10
  • Thomas Cosgrove (Padres): Hamstring, D15
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Eguy Rosario (Padres): Ankle, D60
  • Luis Campusano (Padres): Thumb Sprain, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
  • Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.