- The Phillies are -250 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+200) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-250) on Thursday, August 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-125).
The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 50-65 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 48-67 ATS.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 +105 | O 9 -105 | +200 |
| Phillies | -1.5 -125 | U 9 -115 | -250 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 83.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Nationals vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+12.85 Units / 23% ROI)
- CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 36 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 32 of his last 48 games (+11.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.10 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+12.95 Units / 68% ROI)
- Trea Turner has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.60 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 27 games (+12.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.15 Units / 25% ROI)
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Alex Call | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +275 | 0.5 -400 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -115 |
| Aaron Nola | 5.5 -160 | 5.5 +120 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 59 away games (+14.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.70 Units / 21% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+8.64 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in their last 7 games at home (+7.29 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 57 games (+5.90 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.65 Units / 39% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 63-52 against the Run Line (+3.55 Units / 2.52% ROI).
- 50-65 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.3 Units / 11.38% ROI
- 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.1 Units / -8.77% ROI
- 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.55 Units / 0.44% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 48-67 against the Run Line (-27.5 Units / -19% ROI).
- 63-52 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.55 Units / -4.07% ROI
- 46-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.85 Units / -14.17% ROI
- 58-46 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.8 Units / 6.24% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .299 (161-for-539) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .244 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .308 (138-for-448) against Patrick Corbin this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — second Percentile.
Division opponents are hitting .351 (136-for-387) against Patrick Corbin since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 109 total IP; League Avg: .246 — 0 Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has a strike rate of just 58% (331/567) in two strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — third Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 38% of the time (154/404) when he’s behind in the count this season — tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 12% — 97th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has thrown his curveball 31% of the time (283/903) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has allowed a slugging percentage of .734 (171 Total Bases / 233 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .568 — second Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a strike rate of 69% (465/674) in two strike counts this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 95th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 16-29 (.356) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .540.
The Nationals are just 105-172 (.379) since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 5-7 (.417) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .591.
The Nationals are just 32-58 (.356) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 6-45 (.118) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Phillies are 24-99 (.195) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies are 18-100 (.153) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .092.
The Phillies are 11-5 (.688) after a win as underdogs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .447.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.77 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 35% at home since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Nationals hitters have just 554 strikeouts in 2,925 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .243 on pitches out of the zone this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Phillies hitters have pulled just 43% of balls they’ve put into play against RHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Phillies hitters have 78 extra-base hits out of 233 total hits (just 34%) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Phillies hitters are slugging .491 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .446.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 328 of 4,298 batters (8%) this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 74 of 1,026 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Phillies pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- José Alvarado (Phillies): Elbow, D15
- Cristian Pache (Phillies): Elbow, D10
- Brandon Marsh (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Joshua Garcia (Nationals): Biceps, D15
Bet now on Nationals vs Phillies and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
