- The Phillies (58-48) are -275 favorites vs the Nationals (36-72)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (4-15), 6.56 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (7-5), 3.60 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Washington Nationals (+220) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-275) on Saturday, August 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 36-72 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 55-51 ATS.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -130 | O 9 -115 | +220 |
| Phillies | -2.5 +105 | U 9 -105 | -275 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 61.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 25 of his last 38 games (+12.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 28 games (+9.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 26 away games (+8.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+8.25 Units / 78% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 18 away games (+7.65 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 33 games (+15.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 36 games at home (+12.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+12.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 24 games (+11.95 Units / 47% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+11.60 Units / 35% ROI)
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 1.5 +125 | 1.5 -185 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -225 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Edmundo Sosa | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jean Segura | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -110 |
| Patrick Corbin | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -155 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 57 of their last 95 games (+19.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 41 games (+5.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 15 games (+3.20 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 away games (+2.15 Units / 30% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 56 games (+15.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 58 of their last 101 games (+12.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 55 games (+11.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 41 games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 43% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 46-62 against the Run Line (-24.35 Units / -18.32% ROI).
- 36-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.75 Units / -18.48% ROI
- 52-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -1.58% ROI
- 49-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.45 Units / -6.32% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 55-51 against the Run Line (+4.1 Units / 3.19% ROI).
- 58-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.1 Units / 1.47% ROI
- 53-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.45 Units / 1.24% ROI
- 47-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -11 Units / -9.44% ROI
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .333 (261 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .326 (156-for-479) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .236 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .322 (119-for-370) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .242 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .250 (58-for-232) against Patrick Corbin with two-strikes this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .160 — first Percentile.
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ranger Suarez has pitched 16.0 straight innings without allowing an earned run — Caleb Ferguson has the longest active streak at 19.0.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (107/561) against Ranger Suarez since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .326 (30 Total Bases / 92 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: .582 — 100th Percentile.
Ranger Suarez has located his fastball inside 49% of the time (1,046/2,154) since the start of last season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 133 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 17-40 (.298) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
The Nationals are just 11-66 (.143) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Nationals are just 3-5 (.375) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Nationals are just 8-38 (.174) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .290.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 10-36 (.217) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Phillies are 12-36 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Phillies are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 45-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .912.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 52%.
Nationals hitters have just 540 strikeouts in 2,750 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Nationals have scored first in just 30% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .331 (5,104 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are 10-36 (.217) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Phillies are 12-36 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Phillies have a winning percentage of 57% on the road this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Phillies hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (427.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .306 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 59 of 942 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Right Shoulder, D15
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Clippard (Nationals): Groin, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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