- The Phillies (59-48) are -300 favorites vs the Nationals (36-73)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Cory Abbott (0-0), 1.00 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (7-8), 3.24 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals (+240) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-300) on Sunday, August 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+100).
The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 36-73 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 56-51 ATS.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +2.5 -120 | O 8.5 -105 | +240 |
| Phillies | -2.5 +100 | U 8.5 -115 | -300 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s matchup with 51.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Singles Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+13.15 Units / 30% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 29 games (+10.85 Units / 30% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 27 away games (+9.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 19 away games (+8.75 Units / 44% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 34 games (+16.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+13.90 Units / 52% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 28 of his last 37 games at home (+11.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 20 of his last 30 games at home (+11.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 30 games (+11.00 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 1.5 +140 | 1.5 -200 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +110 | 0.5 -155 |
| Garrett Stubbs | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 58 of their last 96 games (+20.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 88 games (+5.35 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 16 games (+2.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.15 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 57 games (+16.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 59 of their last 102 games (+13.90 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 56 games (+12.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 29 games at home (+6.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 47% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 46-63 against the Run Line (-25.35 Units / -18.93% ROI).
- 36-73 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.75 Units / -19.2% ROI
- 53-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.9 Units / -0.74% ROI
- 49-53 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.6 Units / -7.22% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 56-51 against the Run Line (+5.1 Units / 3.93% ROI).
- 59-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 2.13% ROI
- 54-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 2.08% ROI
- 47-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.15 Units / -10.32% ROI
Cory Abbott: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 6% (1/16) against Cory Abbott — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
The last hit on a Cory Abbott fastball was June 19th. Hitters are 0 for their last 16 in ABs ending on his fastball. — James Karinchak has the longest active streak at 20.
Cory Abbott has allowed an OPS of just .335 (25 PA’s) — 7th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .697 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .095 (2-for-21) against Cory Abbott — 7th best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .245 — 94th Percentile.
Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Nola has walked 6 of 279 right-handed batters (2%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (379/542) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola has walked 18 of 539 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 13.8 (83/6) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 17-40 (.298) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 36-62 (.367) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 105-16 (.868) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Nationals are just 9-58 (.134) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 10-36 (.217) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .088.
The Phillies are 12-36 (.250) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Phillies are just 3-10 (.231) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are just 5-6 (.455) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 30% at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 38% at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters have just 626 strikeouts in 3,126 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 238 strikeouts in 1,279 PA’s (19%) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters are slugging .503 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .448.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of 1.164 (89 PA’s) in the first 3 innings over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .711.
Phillies hitters are slugging .552 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Phillies hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .306 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.88 (435.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.16.
Nationals pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 9% of innings played this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 59 of 951 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 151 of 2,376 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Erick Fedde (Nationals): Right Shoulder, D15
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
- Tyler Clippard (Nationals): Groin, D15
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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