- The Phillies are + favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Trevor Williams
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Washington Nationals (+) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+) on Sunday, July 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 33-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 34-48 ATS.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | + + | O + | + |
| Phillies | + + | U + | + |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 84.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 42 games (+19.65 Units / 37% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 42 games (+19.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+17.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+16.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+14.45 Units / 85% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 36 games (+13.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+12.50 Units / 43% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 24 games at home (+11.20 Units / 46% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.70 Units / 40% ROI)
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +150 | 1.5 -200 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Michael Chavis | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Stone Garrett | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ranger Suarez | 4.5 -175 | 4.5 +135 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 42 away games (+15.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 41 away games (+13.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 away games (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 33 games (+7.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 37 away games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 37 of their last 65 games (+14.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 25 games (+11.85 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games (+9.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games at home (+9.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 46-36 against the Run Line (+5.6 Units / 5.58% ROI).
- 33-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.65 Units / 4.41% ROI
- 38-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -6.71% ROI
- 40-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -1.12% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 34-48 against the Run Line (-20.9 Units / -20.22% ROI).
- 44-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -3.41% ROI
- 31-44 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.35 Units / -19.21% ROI
- 44-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.2 Units / 11.31% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Trevor Williams has thrown his off-speed pitches for a strike just 52% (609/1,174) of the time since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 16% (6/37) against Trevor Williams on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 100th Percentile.
Trevor Williams has allowed a slugging percentage of .503 (75 Total Bases / 149 ABs) when ahead in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: .306 — 0 Percentile.
Trevor Williams has located his non-fastball low 89% of the time (520/583) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 49% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (122/251) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 32 total IP; League Avg: 60% — 0 Percentile.
The last hit on a Ranger Suarez curveball was June 4th. Hitters are 0 for their last 20 in ABs ending on his curveball. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (127/209) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (524/970) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 97 total IP; League Avg: 61% — second Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Nationals are just 26-54 (.325) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 87-134 (.394) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Nationals are just 31-57 (.352) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 17-17 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Phillies are 26-17 (.605) after a win this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Phillies are just 9-16 (.360) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 34-3 (.919) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .858.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have drawn 126 walks in 2,047 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have just 388 strikeouts in 2,047 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .764 (2,700 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .722.
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .741 (9,205 PA’s) since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Phillies hitters are slugging .445 against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 53% against Phillies pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 22 of 410 batters (5%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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