Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 5

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 05, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Phillies (42-38) are -165 favorites vs the Nationals (29-53)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-1), 2.80 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Rodolfo Sanchez (-), ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-165) on Tuesday, July 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).

The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 29-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 40-40 ATS.

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -140O 9.5 -105+140
Phillies -1.5 +115U 9.5 -115-165

Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Nationals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 33 away games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+11.70 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.35 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+9.15 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)

Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Bryson Stott 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Darick Hall 0.5 +325 0.5 -500
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +165 0.5 -250

Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryson Stott 0.5 -200 0.5 +150
Darick Hall 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Kyle Schwarber 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Nick Castellanos 1.5 +170 1.5 -250

Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Bryson Stott 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Darick Hall 0.5 +125 0.5 -175
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +100 0.5 -145

Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Paolo Espino 3.5 -105 3.5 -135
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+12.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+3.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+2.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+1.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.65 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+9.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+6.60 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+1.60 Units / 9% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 34-48 against the Run Line (-21.5 Units / -21.03% ROI).

  • 29-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.65 Units / -18.16% ROI
  • 41-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.22% ROI
  • 37-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.6 Units / -8.48% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 40-40 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -0.82% ROI).

  • 42-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -2.52% ROI
  • 44-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.7 Units / 7.6% ROI
  • 34-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -16.25% ROI

Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of .875 (14 Total Bases / 16 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .387 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (23/71) against Paolo Espino this season — 9th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 12% (17/140) against Paolo Espino this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .212 (18-for-85) against Paolo Espino with two-strikes this season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .155 — fourth Percentile.

Rodolfo Sanchez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 8-48 (.143) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Nationals are just 100-22 (.820) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Nationals are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Nationals are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are just 0-8 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .080.

The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .107.

The Phillies are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 238 double plays in 1,815 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters have just 1,325 strikeouts in 6,330 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have just 588 strikeouts in 3,068 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .326 (6,330 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.

The Phillies are batting .361 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .337.

Phillies hitters are slugging .636 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .568.

Phillies hitters are slugging .509 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .445.

Phillies hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 141 of 2,139 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .276 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .255 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.

Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Back, D15
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Juan Soto (Nationals): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.