- The Phillies (42-38) are -165 favorites vs the Nationals (29-53)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Paolo Espino (0-1), 2.80 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Rodolfo Sanchez (-), – ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Washington Nationals (+140) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-165) on Tuesday, July 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 29-53 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 40-40 ATS.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -140 | O 9.5 -105 | +140 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +115 | U 9.5 -115 | -165 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 69.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 33 away games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+11.70 Units / 28% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 24 away games (+11.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+11.20 Units / 40% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+9.15 Units / 47% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 11 games (+8.30 Units / 75% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 35% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+6.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +325 | 0.5 -500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Nick Castellanos | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -175 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Paolo Espino | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 41 of their last 69 games (+12.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 11 away games (+3.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 away games (+2.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+1.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 75 games (+10.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 30 games (+10.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 64 games (+9.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+6.60 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+1.60 Units / 9% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 34-48 against the Run Line (-21.5 Units / -21.03% ROI).
- 29-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.65 Units / -18.16% ROI
- 41-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.22% ROI
- 37-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.6 Units / -8.48% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 40-40 against the Run Line (-0.8 Units / -0.82% ROI).
- 42-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.7 Units / -2.52% ROI
- 44-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.7 Units / 7.6% ROI
- 34-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -16.25% ROI
Paolo Espino: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Paolo Espino has allowed a slugging percentage of .875 (14 Total Bases / 16 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .387 — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (23/71) against Paolo Espino this season — 9th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — eighth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a miss rate of just 12% (17/140) against Paolo Espino this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 27% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .212 (18-for-85) against Paolo Espino with two-strikes this season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .155 — fourth Percentile.
Rodolfo Sanchez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 8-48 (.143) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 100-22 (.820) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Nationals are just 8-29 (.216) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Nationals are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .893.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are just 0-8 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .080.
The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .107.
The Phillies are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have grounded into 238 double plays in 1,815 opportunities (13%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,325 strikeouts in 6,330 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 588 strikeouts in 3,068 PA’s (19%) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .326 (6,330 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .361 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Phillies hitters are slugging .636 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .568.
Phillies hitters are slugging .509 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Nationals have won just 20% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 141 of 2,139 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .276 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .255 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .222.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Back, D15
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Juan Soto (Nationals): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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