Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 06, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Phillies (43-38) are -225 favorites vs the Nationals (29-54)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (6-5), 4.22 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Aaron Nola (5-5), 3.12 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Washington Nationals (+180) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-225) on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 29-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 41-40 ATS.

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -110O 8 -115+180
Phillies -1.5 -110U 8 -105-225

Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 62.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Nationals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 23 away games (+12.70 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 34 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Victor Robles has hit the Runs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+6.10 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+9.35 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 19 games at home (+7.90 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+6.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 29 games at home (+6.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.00 Units / 28% ROI)

Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Bryson Stott 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
Darick Hall 0.5 +300 0.5 -550
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +375 0.5 -700

Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Bryson Stott 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Darick Hall 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Didi Gregorius 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Bryson Stott 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Darick Hall 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +150 0.5 -225

Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Nola 6.5 -115 6.5 -115
Josiah Gray 5.5 +115 5.5 -165
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 70 games (+13.50 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 62 games (+7.45 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 12 away games (+2.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 away games (+1.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 76 games (+11.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 31 games (+11.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+10.65 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+7.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 34-49 against the Run Line (-22.85 Units / -22.06% ROI).

  • 29-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.65 Units / -19.09% ROI
  • 42-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.2 Units / 1.3% ROI
  • 37-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.75 Units / -9.64% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 41-40 against the Run Line (+0.35 Units / 0.35% ROI).

  • 43-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -1.56% ROI
  • 45-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.7 Units / 8.63% ROI
  • 34-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.45 Units / -17.33% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (39/129) against Josiah Gray this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .838 (31 Total Bases / 37 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .360 — first Percentile.

Josiah Gray has walked 23 of 147 left-handed batters (16%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (62/217) against Josiah Gray this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — second Percentile.

Aaron Nola: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 30% (16 SO in 54 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has walked 14 of 402 batters (4%) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 98th Percentile.

Aaron Nola’s K:BB ratio is 12.6 (63/5) against right-handed batters this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.7 — 100th Percentile.

Aaron Nola has a strikeout rate of 49% (117 SO in 237 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 89th Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 8-49 (.140) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Nationals are just 29-48 (.377) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Nationals are just 100-22 (.820) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .876.

The Nationals are just 8-30 (.211) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .284.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are just 0-8 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-28 (.222) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .080.

The Phillies are 15-6 (.714) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .669.

The Phillies are just 4-6 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Nationals hitters have just 179 strikeouts in 1,021 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have 58 extra-base hits out of 223 total hits (just 26%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 82 double plays in 582 opportunities (14%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Nationals hitters have just 567 strikeouts in 2,868 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .742 (1,483 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .698.

The Phillies are just 0-8 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies hitters are slugging .509 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .446.

Phillies hitters are slugging .631 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.79 (320.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.15.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .276 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .215.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 142 of 2,148 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,310 times since the start of last season — tied for 5th fewest in MLB.

Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Back, D15
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Juan Soto (Nationals): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Nelson Cruz (Nationals): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.