- The Phillies (43-39) are -185 favorites vs the Nationals (30-54)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Joan Adon (1-11), 6.97 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Bailey Falter (0-2), 4.87 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Washington Nationals (+150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Thursday, July 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 30-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 41-41 ATS.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | O 9.5 -105 | +150 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | U 9.5 -115 | -185 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Thursday‘s matchup with 76.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 away games (+13.70 Units / 30% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 23 of his last 35 away games (+9.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+7.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 6 away games (+6.75 Units / 71% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+6.50 Units / 27% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+10.50 Units / 81% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 30 games at home (+7.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games at home (+6.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+6.55 Units / 70% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.35 Units / 24% ROI)
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nick Castellanos | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Kyle Schwarber | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Nick Castellanos | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bailey Falter | 3.5 +125 | 3.5 -175 |
| Joan Adon | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 42 of their last 71 games (+12.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 63 games (+6.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 away games (+3.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 away games (+3.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 11 away games (+1.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 77 games (+10.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 66 games (+9.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 32 games (+9.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 31 games (+6.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 35-49 against the Run Line (-21.85 Units / -20.85% ROI).
- 30-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.85 Units / -16.84% ROI
- 42-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.15 Units / 0.16% ROI
- 38-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.75 Units / -8.43% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 41-41 against the Run Line (-0.65 Units / -0.65% ROI).
- 43-39 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.9 Units / -3.51% ROI
- 45-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.65 Units / 7.37% ROI
- 35-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.45 Units / -16% ROI
Joan Adon: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joan Adon has allowed an OBP of .345 (142 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .238 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 14% (44/319) against Joan Adon in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 0 Percentile.
Joan Adon has an ERA of 6.97 (60.2 IP)this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 3.81 — second Percentile.
Joan Adon has allowed an OPS of .917 (188 PA’s) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .681 — first Percentile.
Bailey Falter: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Falter has allowed at least one HR in each of his last three games dating back to May 27th — Jose Urquidy has the longest active streak at 9.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 100-22 (.820) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Nationals are just 23-4 (.852) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .890.
The Nationals are just 14-31 (.311) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 16-23 (.410) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .484.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are just 0-8 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-29 (.216) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .082.
The Phillies are 20-18 (.526) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .484.
The Phillies are just 31-5 (.861) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .890.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals have grounded 241 double plays since the start of last season — most in MLB.
Nationals hitters have just 179 strikeouts in 1,022 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 1,333 strikeouts in 6,377 PA’s (21%) against RHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .334 (948 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Phillies are just 0-8 (.000) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are batting .357 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .337.
Phillies hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.69 (329.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .274 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Brogdon (Phillies): COVID, D10
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Johan Camargo (Phillies): Knee, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Ranger Suárez (Phillies): Back, D15
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Joseph Romero (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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