- The Phillies are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Washington Nationals (+150) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-185) on Friday, June 30, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 32-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 33-47 ATS.
Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | O 9.5 -105 | +150 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +105 | U 9.5 -115 | -185 |
Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 74.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+19.50 Units / 31% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+17.90 Units / 34% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 26 games (+16.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 40 games (+16.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 40 games (+14.60 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+13.85 Units / 92% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+12.50 Units / 21% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+10.90 Units / 49% ROI)
- J.T. Realmuto has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Zack Wheeler has hit the Pitching Outs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.70 Units / 38% ROI)
Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Lane Thomas | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Lane Thomas | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sanchez | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +100 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 40 away games (+15.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 39 away games (+13.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 39 away games (+9.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 35 away games (+2.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 63 games (+14.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 23 games (+12.65 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games (+10.55 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+9.95 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+9.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 45-35 against the Run Line (+5.7 Units / 5.81% ROI).
- 32-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.05 Units / 3.77% ROI
- 37-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -6.66% ROI
- 39-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -1 Units / -1.14% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 33-47 against the Run Line (-20.9 Units / -20.64% ROI).
- 43-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -2.81% ROI
- 30-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.15 Units / -19.51% ROI
- 43-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.2 Units / 11.56% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a .473 SLG vs right-handed batters (fourth worst)– sixth Percentile and just .322 vs left-handed batters this season (sixth best among qualified SPs)– 90th Percentile.
15 of Josiah Gray’s 53 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) have been backdoor this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 13% — 95th Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 61% (946/1,540) this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — seventh Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 71 of 460 left-handed batters (15%) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez did not walk any of the 19 batters that he faced — tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a chase percentage of just 21% (6/29) against Cristopher Sanchez — 11th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 30% — ninth Percentile.
Cristopher Sanchez has thrown his changeup 34% of the time (20/59) against right-handed batters over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 17% — 95th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Nationals are just 4-6 (.400) after a win as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Nationals are just 13-26 (.333) after a home win since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .541.
The Nationals are just 30-56 (.349) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Nationals are just 1-142 (.007) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Phillies are 17-17 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .416.
The Phillies are 11-4 (.733) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .565.
The Phillies are 56-23 (.709) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.
The Phillies are 79-50 (.612) after a win since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have drawn 126 walks in 2,014 PA’s (6%) against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Nationals hitters have just 379 strikeouts in 2,014 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have chased 35% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 56 walks in 925 PA’s (6%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies are batting .255 since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Phillies are batting .174 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 18% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 37 double plays in 524 opportunities (7%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Phillies have won just 10% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 23 of 416 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Seranthony DomÃnguez (Phillies): Oblique, D15
- Rhys Hoskins (Phillies): ACL, D60
- Noah Song (Phillies): Back, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Paul Abrams (Nationals): Elbow, Day-to-Day
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