Nationals vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 10

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 10, 2022, 3:31 PM
  • The Phillies (76-62) are -250 favorites vs the Nationals (49-90)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (6-9), 5.07 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez (8-5), 3.52 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Washington Nationals (+200) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-250) on Saturday, September 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-130).

The Nationals vs Phillies Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 48-87 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 67-67 ATS.

Nationals vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 +105O 9 -120+200
Phillies -1.5 -130U 9 +100-250

Nationals vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Over in 27 of his last 36 away games (+22.05 Units / 59% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 29 games (+18.05 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 37 away games (+17.40 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 37 away games (+13.20 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Joey Meneses has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+12.45 Units / 38% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 54 games (+13.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.45 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 49 games (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Over in 35 of his last 49 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)

Phillies vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Bryce Harper 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Bryson Stott 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Jean Segura 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Phillies vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Marsh 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Bryce Harper 1.5 +160 1.5 -225
Bryson Stott 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Jean Segura 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 -225 0.5 +160

Phillies vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +210 0.5 -350
Bryce Harper 0.5 +110 0.5 -160
Bryson Stott 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Jean Segura 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Kyle Schwarber 0.5 +110 0.5 -155

Phillies vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ranger Suarez 4.5 -115 4.5 -125
Erick Fedde 3.5 -145 3.5 +100
  • team high – away
  • team high – home

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 60-75 against the Run Line (-21.7 Units / -13.26% ROI).

  • 48-87 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.1 Units / -8.62% ROI
  • 67-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.13% ROI
  • 61-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.15 Units / -8.2% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 67-67 against the Run Line (-2.6 Units / -1.6% ROI).

  • 74-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 0.77% ROI
  • 68-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.25 Units / 0.84% ROI
  • 61-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.35 Units / -8.98% ROI

Erick Fedde has walked 20 of 113 batters (18%) with runners in scoring position this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 9% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (227/1,022) against Erick Fedde this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.

Erick Fedde has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 55% (441/801) of opposing batters since the start of last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.

Erick Fedde has a strike rate of just 61% (1,277/2,109) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.

Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (219/381) against Ranger Suarez this season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.

Ranger Suarez has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.8 MPH on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season (102 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 89.7

Ranger Suarez has allowed a slugging percentage of just .333 (35 Total Bases / 105 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: .577 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 13% (19/148) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 148 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Nationals are just 22-47 (.319) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Nationals are just 15-79 (.160) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Nationals are just 49-76 (.392) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Nationals are just 9-178 (.048) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .125.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Phillies are 11-47 (.190) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Phillies are just 4-12 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 13-47 (.217) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Phillies are 33-11 (.750) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 32% at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.

Nationals hitters have just 678 strikeouts in 3,466 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals hitters have grounded into 46 double plays in 360 opportunities (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Nationals have scored first in just 28% of their home games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .139 (115 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,569 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of just .316 (115 PA’s) with two-strikes this month (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies hitters have an OBP of just .175 (206 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.17 (1272.0 IP) on the road since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .252 against Nationals pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (587.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 170 of 2,650 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .260 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.6 MPH (3,318 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

Phillies vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Seranthony Domínguez (Phillies): Triceps, D15
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Zachary Wheeler (Phillies): Forearm, D15
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Elbow, D15
  • Keibert Ruiz (Nationals): Groin, D10
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Victor Robles (Nationals): Neck, Day-to-Day
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D60
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Yadiel Hernandez (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.