- The Pirates are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Joan Adon
- Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Washington Nationals (+120) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-145) on Tuesday, September 12, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Nationals vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 65-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 72-72 ATS.
Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -165 | O 9 -105 | +120 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -115 | -145 |
Nationals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+16.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+10.30 Units / 58% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.30 Units / 22% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 46 games (+12.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 24 games at home (+11.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 24 games at home (+10.40 Units / 32% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+10.05 Units / 61% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Pirates vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Pirates vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Meneses | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -250 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
Pirates vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joan Adon | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Bailey Falter | 2.5 -140 | 2.5 +105 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 126 games (+24.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 70 away games (+16.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 12 away games (+5.83 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 21 away games (+5.25 Units / 23% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 36 games at home (+17.95 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 116 games (+12.99 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 49 games (+10.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 26 games (+6.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 24 games at home (+5.70 Units / 20% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 78-66 against the Run Line (+2.75 Units / 1.56% ROI).
- 65-79 when betting on the Moneyline for +20 Units / 13.54% ROI
- 69-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.95 Units / -3.11% ROI
- 67-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.4 Units / -5.32% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 72-72 against the Run Line (-17.8 Units / -9.36% ROI).
- 66-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.45 Units / 2.2% ROI
- 78-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.1 Units / 7.01% ROI
- 61-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.45 Units / -15.42% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .619 (13-for-21) against Joan Adon when he’s behind in the count over the last 30 days (4 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .332 — second Percentile.
Joan Adon has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.190 (25 Total Bases / 21 ABs) when behind in the count over the last 30 days (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .600 — first Percentile.
Joan Adon has allowed an OPS of 1.894 (27 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count over the last 30 days (4 games) — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 1.066 — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .327 (17-for-52) against Joan Adon over the last 30 days (4 games) — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 11th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Verlander allowed a slugging percentage of just .270 (169 Total Bases / 625 ABs) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander in 2022 — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander allowed an OPS of just .694 (91 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count in 2022 — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.001 — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
keys to the game – away
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
keys to the game – home
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – home
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,108 of 11,773 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed the 2nd hardest ball in play hit (115.1 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.0).
Pirates vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Finger, D15
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Riley Adams (Nationals): Wrist, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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