- The Pirates are -140 favorites vs the Nationals
- Nationals starting pitcher: Jackson Rutledge
- Pirates starting pitcher: Colin Selby
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Washington Nationals (+115) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-140) on Wednesday, September 13, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Nationals vs Pirates Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 65-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 73-72 ATS.
Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -165 | O 9.5 -120 | +115 |
| Pirates | -1.5 +140 | U 9.5 +100 | -140 |
Nationals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 58.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+16.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.85 Units / 67% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+10.75 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.35 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 16 games at home (+9.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+9.25 Units / 11% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+9.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+8.80 Units / 26% ROI)
Pirates vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Pirates vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Pirates vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -225 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Selby | 1.5 +115 | 1.5 -155 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 127 games (+23.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 71 away games (+14.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 13 away games (+6.83 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 22 away games (+6.25 Units / 26% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 37 games at home (+16.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 117 games (+11.89 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 games (+11.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.10 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+4.90 Units / 14% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 78-67 against the Run Line (+1.15 Units / 0.65% ROI).
- 65-80 when betting on the Moneyline for +19 Units / 12.77% ROI
- 69-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.1 Units / -3.8% ROI
- 68-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.4 Units / -4.66% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 73-72 against the Run Line (-16.4 Units / -8.58% ROI).
- 67-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.45 Units / 2.81% ROI
- 78-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +9.95 Units / 6.24% ROI
- 62-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.45 Units / -14.69% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
MacKenzie Gore has an ERA of 7.64 (66.0 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — 0 Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 33 of 260 batters (13%) versus the bottom of the order since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has walked 65 of 582 batters (11%) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 7% — third Percentile.
MacKenzie Gore has a strikeout rate of 32% (37 SO in 115 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 95th Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 26% (340/1,295) against Mitch Keller this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — sixth Percentile.
55% of Mitch Keller’s strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — tied for 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed a slugging percentage of just .213 (19 Total Bases / 89 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .370 — 93rd Percentile.
Mitch Keller has 33 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 14th most among of 679 pitchers in MLB — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 38-57 (.400) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Nationals are just 37-63 (.370) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Nationals are just 44-74 (.373) after a win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Nationals are just 36-158 (.186) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .283.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 9-146 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
The Pirates are just 51-76 (.402) after a win since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Pirates are just 106-54 (.662) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have just 1,023 strikeouts in 5,442 PA’s (19%) this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.76 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Nationals hitters have just 719 strikeouts in 3,693 PA’s (20%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .150 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .169.
The Pirates are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .175 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Pirates are batting just .125 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .155.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
The Pirates pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 22% in close and late situations since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,110 of 11,805 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,716 of 17,945 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Thaddeus Ward (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Finger, D15
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Riley Adams (Nationals): Wrist, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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