- The – are favorites vs the –
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Pirates starting pitcher: Mitch Keller
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Washington Nationals () visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates () on Thursday, September 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 12:35pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Nationals vs Pirates Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Nationals are 65-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 73-73 ATS.
Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | O | ||
| Pirates | U |
Nationals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Pirates will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 70.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corey Dickerson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 21 away games (+16.45 Units / 57% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 25 away games (+16.45 Units / 52% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 21 away games (+10.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+10.70 Units / 57% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 48 games (+10.25 Units / 12% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+10.20 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 43 games (+9.55 Units / 17% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.60 Units / 48% ROI)
Pirates vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Pirates vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Liover Peguero | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
Pirates vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josh Palacios | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Connor Joe | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| RBis will Liover Peguero | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Pirates vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +125 |
| Mitch Keller | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -145 |
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 128 games (+22.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 46 of their last 72 away games (+15.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.83 Units / 47% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 away games (+5.15 Units / 21% ROI)
Pirates Best Bets Today:
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.80 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 51 games (+12.65 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 118 games (+10.89 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+6.10 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 games (+3.75 Units / 11% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 79-67 against the Run Line (+2.15 Units / 1.2% ROI).
- 65-81 when betting on the Moneyline for +18 Units / 12.02% ROI
- 70-68 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.1 Units / -3.16% ROI
- 68-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.5 Units / -5.31% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Pirates have gone 73-73 against the Run Line (-17.4 Units / -9.05% ROI).
- 68-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.45 Units / 3.41% ROI
- 79-62 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.95 Units / 6.82% ROI
- 62-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -24.55 Units / -15.28% ROI
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .624 (227 Total Bases / 364 ABs) on fastballs since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: .434 — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has walked 87 of 585 left-handed batters (15%) since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 58% (1,431/2,447) vs left-handed batters since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 122 total IP; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed an OBP of .425 (146 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: .313 — first Percentile.
Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mitch Keller has a strikeout rate of 53% (54 SO in 102 PAs) in PAs ending on fastballs away this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Mitch Keller has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.3 MPH (495 batted balls) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 89.2 — 94th Percentile.
20% of Mitch Keller’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 10% — 82nd Percentile.
Mitch Keller has a strike rate of 69% (398/577) with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — 92nd Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Nationals are just 37-63 (.370) after a home loss since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
The Nationals are just 38-57 (.400) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
The Nationals are just 59-40 (.596) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
The Nationals are just 20-33 (.377) after a home win since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Pirates are just 11-18 (.379) after a road win this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Pirates are just 9-17 (.346) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Pirates are just 123-153 (.446) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .536.
The Pirates are just 9-146 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .093.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
team hitters – away
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .222 on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .496 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Pirates are batting just .231 against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .671 (3,580 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .727.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in late innings this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,114 of 11,843 batters (9%) since last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed the 2nd hardest ball in play hit (115.1 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 117.0).
Pirates pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 100 times since last season — 5th fewest in MLB.
Pirates vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Andrew McCutchen (Pirates): Achilles, D10
- Angel Perdomo (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Jarlín García (Pirates): Arm, D60
- Henry Davis (Pirates): Hand, D10
- Vincent Velasquez (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Tucupita Marcano (Pirates): Knee, D60
- Oneil Cruz (Pirates): Ankle, D60
- Jonathan Brubaker (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Victor Robles (Nationals): Back, D60
- MacKenzie Gore (Nationals): Finger, D15
- Stone Garrett (Nationals): Leg, D60
- Riley Adams (Nationals): Wrist, D10
- Carl Edwards Jr. (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
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