Nationals vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 5

Pittsburgh Pirates' Jack Suwinski hits a home run off Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jameson Taillon during the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, June 13, 2023, in Chicago.
(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)
  • The Nationals are +100 favorites vs the Pirates
  • Nationals vs Pirates Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
  • Nationals / Pirates TV Channel: MASN | SNPT | MLBN

The Washington Nationals (+100) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (-120) on Thursday, September 5, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.

This season, the Nationals are 62-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 76-63 ATS.

Nationals vs Pirates Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Nationals starting pitcher: Jake Irvin 9-11, 4.10 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Bailey Falter 6-7, 4.43 ERA

Nationals vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals-1.5 +170O 8.5 -115+100
Pirates +1.5 -210U 8.5 -105-120

Nationals vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 51.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


Bet now on Nationals vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Keibert Ruiz has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 away games (+16.30 Units / 116% ROI)
  • CJ Abrams has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.40 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Jacob Young has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+10.60 Units / 22% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Yasmani Grandal has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 5 games at home (+22.40 Units / 448% ROI)
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+15.70 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Yasmani Grandal has hit the Runs Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+9.60 Units / 137% ROI)
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Under in 15 of his last 23 games (+9.60 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 26 of his last 40 games (+9.45 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 75 of their last 131 games (+11.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 28 of their last 45 away games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 67 away games (+8.60 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+7.60 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 away games (+6.30 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 58 of their last 100 games (+13.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 62 games (+10.40 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games at home (+8.80 Units / 66% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 51 games at home (+7.15 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.95 Units / 38% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 78-61 against the Run Line (+7.88 Units / 4.33% ROI).

  • 62-77 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.5 Units / 1.69% ROI
  • 65-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -5.33% ROI
  • 67-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.37 Units / -3.49% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Pirates are 76-63 against the Run Line (+8.81 Units / 4.88% ROI).

  • 65-74 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -6.14% ROI
  • 67-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -4.44% ROI
  • 67-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.72 Units / -3.77% ROI

Pirates vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Oneil Cruz (PIT) 0.5 +475 0.5 -650
Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) 0.5 +500 0.5 -750
Juan Yepez (WSH) 0.5 +575 0.5 -900
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 0.5 +600 0.5 -900
Dylan Crews (WAS) 0.5 +625 0.5 -1000

Pirates vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Nick Gonzales (PIT) 0.5 -250 0.5 +195
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 0.5 -250 0.5 +180
Dylan Crews (WAS) 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Oneil Cruz (PIT) 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Jacob Young (WAS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170

Pirates vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Oneil Cruz (PIT) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Andrew McCutchen (PIT) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Andrรฉs Chaparro (WAS) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Bryan Reynolds (PIT) 0.5 +180 0.5 -250
Rowdy Tellez (PIT) 0.5 +180 0.5 -250

Pirates vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bailey Falter (PIT) 3.5 -145 3.5 +110
Jake Irvin (WSH) 5.5 +125 5.5 -165

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of just 21% (112/533) against Jake Irvin this season — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — seventh Percentile.

Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 28% of the time (285/1,032) when he’s behind in the count since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total CB; League Avg: 10% — 96th Percentile.

Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 34% of the time (182/535) when he’s behind in the count this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.

Jake Irvin has thrown his curveball 36% of the time (239/658) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.

Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a line drive rate of 32% (55/170) against Bailey Falter with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 0 Percentile.

Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .526 (182 Total Bases / 346 ABs) on breaking pitches since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 184 total IP; League Avg: .374 — first Percentile.

Bailey Falter has allowed a slugging percentage of .368 (133 Total Bases / 361 ABs) with two-strikes since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 120 total IP; League Avg: .269 — second Percentile.

Bailey Falter has a strikeout rate of just 15% (28 SO in 192 PAs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 55 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .580.

The Nationals are just 56-227 (.198) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

The Nationals are 14-6 (.700) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .588.

The Nationals are just 35-56 (.385) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Pirates are just 17-29 (.370) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Pirates are just 6-41 (.128) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .249.

The Pirates are just 54-6 (.900) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .946.

The Pirates are just 123-9 (.932) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .948.

Nationals hitters have just 2,366 strikeouts in 11,884 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters are averaging just 3.79 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Nationals hitters have just 1,542 strikeouts in 7,833 PA’s (20%) against RHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .955 (2,079 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.089.

Pirates hitters have an OBP of just .302 (5,215 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .498 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .580.

Pirates hitters have 86 strikeouts in 235 PA’s (37%) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .679 (5,215 PA’s) against LHP since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .724.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,613 of 17,797 batters (9%) since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have 226 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.

The longest HR allowed by the Pirates pitchers in the 2023 season traveled 454.0 feet — — 2nd shortest in MLB; League Avg: 465.8

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 54% of their games since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Pittsburgh Pirates – No Injuries Reported
  • Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported

Bet now on Nationals vs Pirates and all games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.

First Bet Offer BetMGM State Promo Pages $1,500
About the Author

BetMGM

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.

Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.