- The Rangers (33-36) are -145 favorites vs the Nationals (26-47)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray (6-4), 3.95 ERA
- Rangers starting pitcher: Matthew Bush (2-1), 4.05 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Washington Nationals (+120) visit Globe Life Field to take on the Texas Rangers (-145) on Saturday, June 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Arlington.
The Rangers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Nationals vs Rangers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 26-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Rangers are 41-28 ATS.
Nationals vs. Rangers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -105 | +120 |
| Rangers | -1.5 +135 | U 8.5 -115 | -145 |
Nationals vs Rangers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Rangers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 70.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Rangers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 away games (+13.65 Units / 48% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+12.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 17 away games (+11.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- Josh Bell has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 31 away games (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Nelson Cruz has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 64% ROI)
Best Rangers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rangers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+12.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+10.65 Units / 74% ROI)
- Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+9.90 Units / 72% ROI)
- Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+7.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- Corey Seager has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.95 Units / 34% ROI)
Rangers vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Josh H. Smith | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Rangers vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Josh H. Smith | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
Rangers vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adolis Garcia | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Corey Seager | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Josh H. Smith | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Kole Calhoun | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -190 |
| Leody Taveras | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Rangers vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 5.5 -155 | 5.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 60 games (+14.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+9.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.05 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.45 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+2.30 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Rangers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Texas Rangers have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 58 games (+17.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 56 games (+7.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 games (+7.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Texas Rangers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 49 games (+2.13 Units / 4% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 30-43 against the Run Line (-20.1 Units / -22.21% ROI).
- 26-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.15 Units / -16.11% ROI
- 38-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 3.4% ROI
- 32-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.45 Units / -11.81% ROI
Rangers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 41-28 against the Run Line (+9.65 Units / 10.67% ROI).
- 33-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.07% ROI
- 28-33 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.15 Units / -10.7% ROI
- 33-28 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.15 Units / 2.83% ROI
Josiah Gray: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 55% (287/524) vs left-handed batters this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (51/180) against Josiah Gray this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strikeout rate of just 4% (2 SO in 54 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 15% — third Percentile.
Josiah Gray has a strike rate of just 61% (725/1,194) this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Matthew Bush: Rangers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Matt Bush has a strikeout rate of 58% (36 SO in 62 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 9th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 92nd Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 51% (21/41) against Matt Bush on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.
Matt Bush has allowed an OPS of 1.152 (29 PA’s) versus the heart of the order this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: .670 — second Percentile.
Matt Bush has a first-pitch strike rate of 70% (81/115) this season — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 60% — 96th Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Rangers
The Nationals are just 12-26 (.316) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Nationals are just 6-43 (.122) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Nationals are just 26-41 (.388) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Nationals are just 8-27 (.229) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .286.
Rangers Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Rangers are just 24-6 (.800) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .925.
The Rangers are 18-3 (.857) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Rangers are just 16-19 (.457) at home this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.
The Rangers are just 47-98 (.324) on the road since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .466.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .347 (2,695 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Nationals hitters have just 539 strikeouts in 2,695 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals hitters have just 648 strikeouts in 3,285 PA’s (20%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters have just 151 strikeouts in 848 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Rangers Hitting Stats & Trends
Rangers hitters have 9 strikeouts in 13 PA’s (69%) against LHP over the past seven days (4 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .295 (8,506 PA’s) since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Rangers hitters have an OPS of just .676 (2,650 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .729.
Rangers hitters have an OBP of just .294 (1,029 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (295.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.
The Nationals have won just 21% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .280 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .216.
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Rangers Pitching Stats & Trends
Rangers pitchers have an ERA of 11.81 (16.0 IP) on the road over the past seven days (2 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.03.
Rangers pitchers have walked 60 of 616 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Rangers pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Rangers pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Rangers vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Elijah White (Rangers): Wrist, D60
- Jonathan Hernández (Rangers): Elbow, D60
- Glenn Otto (Rangers): COVID-19, D10
- Matthew Bush (Rangers): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D60
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D15
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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