Nationals vs Rays Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 30

Tampa Bay Rays' Brandon Lowe runs the bases while scoring from first base on a two-run triple by Randy Arozarena off Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Kyle Bradish in the third inning of a baseball game, Thursday, Sept. 14, 2023, in Baltimore. Rays' Yandy Diaz also scored on the triple.
(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
  • The Rays are -185 favorites vs the Nationals
  • Nationals vs Rays Over / Under today: 8 Runs
  • Nationals / Rays TV Channel: MASN | BSUN

The Washington Nationals (+150) visit Tropicana Field to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (-185) on Sunday, June 30, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in St. Petersburg, FL.

This season, the Nationals are 39-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Rays are 39-44 ATS.

Nationals vs Rays Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin 1-7, 5.49 ERA
  • Rays starting pitcher: Taj Bradley 2-4, 3.78 ERA

Nationals vs. Rays Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -135O 8 -110+150
Rays -1.5 +115U 8 -110-185

Nationals vs Rays Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Nationals will win Sunday‘s MLB game with 56.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jesse Winker has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+13.20 Units / 189% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 46 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Rays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Rays Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Ben Rortvedt has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+20.00 Units / 286% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.75 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.10 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 74 games (+14.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 74 games (+12.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 away games (+9.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+4.65 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 19 of their last 43 away games (+4.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 53 of their last 80 games (+24.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 74 games (+8.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.45 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.60 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Tampa Bay Rays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.45 Units / 23% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 48-34 against the Run Line (+10.98 Units / 10.43% ROI).

  • 39-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.7 Units / 11.27% ROI
  • 37-41 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.8 Units / -8.7% ROI
  • 41-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.03 Units / 0.03% ROI

Rays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Rays are 39-44 against the Run Line (-8.3 Units / -7.53% ROI).

  • 41-42 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.85 Units / -9.41% ROI
  • 42-39 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -0.66% ROI
  • 39-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.2 Units / -7.86% ROI

Rays vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Randy Arozarena (TB) 0.5 +375 0.5 -550
Jose Siri (TB) 0.5 +475 0.5 -700
Yandy Diaz (TB) 0.5 +550 0.5 -800
Jonny DeLuca (TB) 0.5 +575 0.5 -900
Lane Thomas (WAS) 0.5 +575 0.5 -800

Rays vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Joey Meneses (WAS) 0.5 -275 0.5 +195
Randy Arozarena (TB) 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Jonny DeLuca (TB) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Luis Garcia (WAS) 0.5 -225 0.5 +170
Isaac Paredes (TB) 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Rays vs Nationals RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Isaac Paredes (TB) 0.5 +130 0.5 -165
Amed Rosario (TB) 0.5 +150 0.5 -200
Jose Siri (TB) 0.5 +160 0.5 -210
Joey Meneses (WAS) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225
Randy Arozarena (TB) 0.5 +165 0.5 -225

Rays vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Patrick Corbin (WAS) 3.5 -175 3.5 +130
Taj Bradley (TB) 5.5 +110 5.5 -145

Patrick Corbin has allowed a slugging percentage of .490 (317 Total Bases / 647 ABs) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .311 (122-for-392) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .315 (204-for-647) against Patrick Corbin when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — fourth Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .853 (705 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .662 — fourth Percentile.

Rays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Taj Bradley has walked 4 of 22 batters (18%) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd highest among AL Starters over the last week; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.

Taj Bradley has struck out 33% (112/342) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.

Taj Bradley has walked 5 of 45 batters (11%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this month (5 games) — tied for 4th highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 6% — 10th Percentile.

Opposing hitters have a groundball rate of just 22% (22/102) against Taj Bradley when he’s behind in the count since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 96 total IP; League Avg: 39% — first Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Rays

The Nationals are just 61-102 (.374) after a win since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .511.

The Nationals are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Nationals are 8-2 (.800) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .575.

The Nationals are just 52-199 (.207) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

Rays Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Rays are 44-14 (.759) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .573.

The Rays are 23-11 (.676) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Rays are 11-90 (.109) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .053.

The Rays are just 12-25 (.324) after a win as underdogs since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.

The Nationals are just 5-17 (.227) against the run line (-41.4% ROI) after a win as favorites since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .447.

Nationals hitters have drawn 119 walks in 2,173 PA’s (6%) when leading off an inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Nationals hitters are slugging just .343 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.

Nationals hitters have just 522 strikeouts in 2,698 PA’s (19%) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Rays hitters have put just 32% of their swings in play on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

The Rays scored first in 71% of their games against division opponents in the 2023 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

28% of Rays hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Rays hitters have 181 strikeouts in 554 PA’s (33%) in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the 2022 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Rays pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

The Rays pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% against Rays pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Rays pitchers allowed division opponents to score first in just 29% of their games in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Rays vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Taylor Walls (Tampa Bay Rays): Hip, 10-Day IL
  • Jonny DeLuca (Tampa Bay Rays): Hand, 10-Day IL
  • Jeffrey Springs (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Shane Baz (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 15-Day IL
  • Jonathan Aranda (Tampa Bay Rays): Finger, 10-Day IL
  • Taj Bradley (Tampa Bay Rays): Pectoral, 15-Day IL
  • Josh Lowe (Tampa Bay Rays): Oblique, 10-Day IL
  • Junior Caminero (Tampa Bay Rays): Quadriceps, Day-To-Day
  • Garrett Acton (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, Out
  • Drew Rasmussen (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Shane McClanahan (Tampa Bay Rays): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Wander Franco (Tampa Bay Rays): Personal, Suspension
  • Zach Brzykcy (Washington Nationals): Elbow, Out
  • Stone Garrett (Washington Nationals): Ankle, 10-Day IL
  • Stephen Strasburg (Washington Nationals): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
  • Nick Senzel (Washington Nationals): Thumb, 10-Day IL
  • Mason Thompson (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL
  • Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals): Elbow, 60-Day IL

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Our BetMGM editors and authors are sports experts with a wealth of knowledge of the sports industry at all levels. Their coverage includes sports news, previews and predictions, fun facts, and betting.