• The Red Sox are -145 favorites vs the Nationals
• Nationals vs Red Sox Over / Under today: 9.5 Runs
• Nationals / Red Sox TV Channel: NESN | NATV

The Washington Nationals (+120) visit Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on July 1, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 pm in Boston, MA.

This season, the Nationals are 44-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox are 37-45 ATS.

Nationals vs Red Sox Starting Pitchers Today:

• Nationals starting pitcher: Andrew Alvarez 1-1, 3.47 ERA
• Red Sox starting pitcher: Payton Tolle 4-5, 2.80 ERA

Nationals vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Nationals vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today:

• CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+16.60 Units / 208% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.90 Units / 54% ROI)
• Keibert Ruiz has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 away games (+12.40 Units / 49% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 25 away games (+11.40 Units / 46% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+10.55 Units / 39% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Caleb Durbin has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games at home (+24.00 Units / 343% ROI)
• Andruw Monasterio has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+10.50 Units / 48% ROI)
• Anthony Seigler has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.70 Units / 53% ROI)
• Anthony Seigler has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.70 Units / 77% ROI)
• Andruw Monasterio has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+7.60 Units / 35% ROI)

Nationals Best Bets Today:

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 away games (+23.70 Units / 47% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 50 away games (+21.05 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 50 away games (+20.65 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 50 away games (+18.50 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 33 of their last 50 away games (+13.45 Units / 22% ROI)

Red Sox Best Bets Today:

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+10.30 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+8.25 Units / 53% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games at home (+8.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 66% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.10 Units / 61% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 53-32 against the Run Line (+12.85 Units / 10.57% ROI).

• 44-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.45 Units / 12.66% ROI
• 51-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +16.2 Units / 16.95% ROI
• 32-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -23.95 Units / -24.99% ROI

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 37-45 against the Run Line (-9.8 Units / -9.09% ROI).

• 37-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -19.9 Units / -19.29% ROI
• 37-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -11.69% ROI
• 43-37 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.1 Units / 2.28% ROI

Red Sox vs Nationals Home Run Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Nationals Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Red Sox vs Nationals Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Nationals are just 6-35 (.146) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Nationals are 27-18 (.600) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .475.

The Nationals are just 34-11 (.756) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .860.

The Nationals are 38-8 (.826) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Red Sox are just 1-7 (.125) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 10-18 (.357) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams this season Today, they face the Nationals (28th runs allowed).

The Red Sox are just 2-25 (.074) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .208.

The Red Sox are just 0-42 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .056.

Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends

The Nationals are batting just .205 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Nationals hitters have 200 extra-base hits out of 503 total hits (40%) against RHP this season — best in MLB.

The Nationals are batting .267 against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB.

The Nationals have scored 1.89 runs per game (164/87) in late innings this season — best in MLB.

Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of just .302 (2,377 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .374 at home this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters are slugging just .373 against RHP this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB.

Red Sox hitters have drawn walks in 7% of their PA’s against RHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Nationals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.31 (385.0 IP) at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

The Nationals pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.9 MPH this season (2,302 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB

Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB.

Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends

Red Sox pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 8% of batters this season — tied for 5th best in MLB.

The Red Sox have allowed 1.05 runs per game (88/84) in late innings this season — 4th best in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 43 double plays in 574 opportunities (7%) this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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