Nationals vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 4

min read
MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 04, 2022, 1:58 PM
  • The Reds (18-33) are -130 favorites vs the Nationals (19-35)
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (3-4), 4.59 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle (2-5), 5.53 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Washington Nationals (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-130) on Saturday, June 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Nationals vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Nationals are 19-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 23-28 ATS.

Nationals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Nationals+1.5 -175O 10 -115+105
Reds -1.5 +145U 10 -105-130

Nationals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Nationals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Maikel Franco has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+11.30 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.65 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Maikel Franco has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+8.90 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Maikel Franco has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.15 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 67% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+10.50 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.25 Units / 69% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.20 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1H Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.70 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 27 away games (+8.30 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.25 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1H Run Line in 17 of their last 34 games (+1.30 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+0.70 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1H Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.90 Units / 46% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1H Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.00 Units / 19% ROI)

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 20-34 against the Run Line (-18.8 Units / -28.57% ROI).

  • 19-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -17.11% ROI
  • 27-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 1.08% ROI
  • 24-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.1 Units / -8.64% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 23-28 against the Run Line (-8.9 Units / -14.14% ROI).

  • 18-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.3 Units / -19.07% ROI
  • 28-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 6.31% ROI
  • 22-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -16.25% ROI

Hitters have chased just 42 of Erick Fedde’s 205 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.

Erick Fedde has located his fastball away 62% of the time (187/299) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of just 30% (43/144) against Erick Fedde with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 40% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (23/67) against Erick Fedde on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 51% — second Percentile.

Tyler Mahle: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Tyler Mahle has walked 16 of 89 batters (18%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.

Tyler Mahle has walked 19 of 123 left-handed batters (15%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.

Tyler Mahle has a strike rate of just 57% (316/554) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.

Tyler Mahle has walked 9 of 38 batters (24%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Nationals are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.

The Nationals are just 1-34 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .069.

The Nationals are just 19-33 (.365) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Nationals are just 4-33 (.108) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Reds are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .069.

The Reds are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.

The Reds are just 3-11 (.214) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.

The Reds are just 3-24 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

 

The Nationals are batting .276 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .349 (2,468 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .336 (4,229 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.

Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .571 (990 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .687.

Reds hitters are slugging just .309 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .381.

The Reds are batting just .203 on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .262 (990 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .306.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.89 (227.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .211.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.57 (207.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.

Reds pitchers have walked 206 of 1,940 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Lower Back, D15
  • Donovan Solano (Reds): Hamstring, D60
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D10
  • Max Schrock (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D10
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Jonathan India (Reds): Hamstring, D10
  • Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Undisclosed, D60
  • Jose Israel Barrero (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
  • Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D10
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Shoulder/Neck, D10
  • Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
  • Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Nationals): Quad, D60
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Reds vs Nationals and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.