- The Reds (18-33) are -130 favorites vs the Nationals (19-35)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Erick Fedde (3-4), 4.59 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle (2-5), 5.53 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Washington Nationals (+105) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-130) on Saturday, June 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Nationals vs Reds Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 19-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 23-28 ATS.
Nationals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -175 | O 10 -115 | +105 |
| Reds | -1.5 +145 | U 10 -105 | -130 |
Nationals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Maikel Franco has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+11.30 Units / 87% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.65 Units / 50% ROI)
- Maikel Franco has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+8.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- Maikel Franco has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 13 away games (+8.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+10.50 Units / 79% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 70% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.30 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Singles Over in 5 of his last 6 games at home (+4.25 Units / 69% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Total Bases Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.20 Units / 58% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1H Total Over in 27 of their last 41 games (+12.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 27 away games (+8.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 11 away games (+2.25 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1H Run Line in 17 of their last 34 games (+1.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 games (+0.70 Units / 5% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1H Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1H Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+10.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+9.10 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 20-34 against the Run Line (-18.8 Units / -28.57% ROI).
- 19-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -17.11% ROI
- 27-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.65 Units / 1.08% ROI
- 24-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.1 Units / -8.64% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 23-28 against the Run Line (-8.9 Units / -14.14% ROI).
- 18-33 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.3 Units / -19.07% ROI
- 28-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 6.31% ROI
- 22-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -16.25% ROI
Erick Fedde: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased just 42 of Erick Fedde’s 205 changeups out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 35% — second Percentile.
Erick Fedde has located his fastball away 62% of the time (187/299) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 30% (43/144) against Erick Fedde with two-strikes this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 40% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (23/67) against Erick Fedde on low breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 51% — second Percentile.
Tyler Mahle: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tyler Mahle has walked 16 of 89 batters (18%) versus the top of the order this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — second Percentile.
Tyler Mahle has walked 19 of 123 left-handed batters (15%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — fifth Percentile.
Tyler Mahle has a strike rate of just 57% (316/554) vs left-handed batters this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fifth Percentile.
Tyler Mahle has walked 9 of 38 batters (24%) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 23 total IP; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Nationals are just 1-31 (.031) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Nationals are just 1-34 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .069.
The Nationals are just 19-33 (.365) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Nationals are just 4-33 (.108) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Reds are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .069.
The Reds are just 0-29 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .091.
The Reds are just 3-11 (.214) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Reds are just 3-24 (.111) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting .276 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .349 (2,468 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .336 (4,229 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .571 (990 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .687.
Reds hitters are slugging just .309 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .381.
The Reds are batting just .203 on the road this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .262 (990 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 37% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.89 (227.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.57 (207.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 60% of opposing batters this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 63%.
Reds pitchers have walked 206 of 1,940 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Lower Back, D15
- Donovan Solano (Reds): Hamstring, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D10
- Max Schrock (Reds): Calf, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan India (Reds): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Undisclosed, D60
- Jose Israel Barrero (Reds): Hand, D10
- Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D10
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Shoulder/Neck, D10
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Nationals): Quad, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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