- The Reds (18-34) are -185 favorites vs the Nationals (20-35)
- Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (1-8), 6.95 ERA
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (2-2), 3.37 ERA
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Washington Nationals (+150) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-185) on Sunday, June 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Nationals vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Nationals are 20-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 23-29 ATS.
Nationals vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Nationals | +1.5 -125 | O 9.5 -115 | +150 |
| Reds | -1.5 +105 | U 9.5 -105 | -185 |
Nationals vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Nationals and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Nationals Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Maikel Franco has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+12.50 Units / 89% ROI)
- Maikel Franco has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 away games (+9.90 Units / 30% ROI)
- Maikel Franco has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+9.15 Units / 42% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Juan Soto has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+11.50 Units / 80% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+5.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.25 Units / 101% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 48% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Nationals Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1H Total Over in 28 of their last 42 games (+13.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 28 away games (+9.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 14 games (+1.85 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 21 away games (+1.55 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1H Run Line in 17 of their last 35 games (+0.15 Units / 0% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1H Run Line in 18 of their last 24 games (+12.90 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1H Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games (+9.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+9.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 37 games (+9.00 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 26 games (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 21-34 against the Run Line (-17.8 Units / -26.39% ROI).
- 20-35 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.5 Units / -14.81% ROI
- 28-24 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.65 Units / 2.7% ROI
- 24-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.3 Units / -10.46% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 23-29 against the Run Line (-9.9 Units / -15.48% ROI).
- 18-34 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.65 Units / -21.05% ROI
- 29-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.55 Units / 7.94% ROI
- 22-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.35 Units / -18% ROI
Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .349 (126 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .232 — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has an ERA of 6.96 (54.1 IP)this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.51 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .313 (73-for-233) against Patrick Corbin this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — second Percentile.
Patrick Corbin has thrown inside pitches 44% of the time (450/1,032) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 97th Percentile.
Luis Castillo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (507/1,148) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (194/311) against Luis Castillo since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 105 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown his changeup 30% of the time (1,100/3,629) since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has pitched 10.2 straight innings without allowing an earned run — the longest active streak is 26.1.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
No Matchup notes for this Game
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
No Matchup notes for this Game
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
The Nationals are batting .281 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .337 (4,275 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .309.
Nationals hitters have put 41% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of .349 (2,469 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .309 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .381.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .571 (990 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .686.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .262 (990 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .306.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 29% on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Nationals pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.97 (236.2 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .332 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 827 of 8,185 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers have walked 210 of 1,986 batters (11%) this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (216.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 28 double plays in 409 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds vs. Nationals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Lower Back, D15
- Donovan Solano (Reds): Hamstring, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D10
- Max Schrock (Reds): Calf, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D10
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan India (Reds): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Undisclosed, D60
- Jose Israel Barrero (Reds): Hand, D10
- Alcides Escobar (Nationals): Hamstring, D10
- Hunter Harvey (Nationals): Pronator, D10
- Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Shoulder/Neck, D10
- Mason Thompson (Nationals): Biceps, D60
- Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
- William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
- Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Right Forearm, D60
- Aníbal Sánchez (Nationals): Neck, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Nationals): Quad, D60
- Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
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